The end of the bear market: a comparison between 2nd and 3rd cycle’s bear markets and the start of the 4th cycle’s bull market
It should speak for itself. Although I would like to highlight some choices I have made. Instead of using indicators in default settings, it is better to understand how the trend develops, from the top and the bottom as the center. In the 2nd cycle this was 52 bars and in the 3rd cycle this was 76 bars (footnote here is that 3rd cycle has a double top and 1st top has been considered as the highest one because of higher RSI).
Momentum indicators are great in analyzing of trend strenghts. That is why RSI has been chosen that acts as a metric for changes in the prices as well the speed at which they change for a particular period (RSI length 52 instead of 14 because of as mentioned earlier). So far not any hint till I added Momemtum indicator and used RSI as the source instead of the closing price. When the RSI crosses up the RSI-based MA (in the Momentum indicator) the trend is strong again. This event happened with the close of the last week in the 3rd cycle. So should we buckle up?
I have added Fibonacci Retracement. As starting point has been used the moment RSI goes below 50 level.
The moment that RSI crosses up 50 level will be correction level of 4th cycle’s bull market and after that bull market will continue.
Would not it be nice if the price hits the same levels in the 4th cycle?
Left: 2nd cycle
Right: 3rd cycle
PS. If you like this idea, check my other ideas as well.
It should speak for itself. Although I would like to highlight some choices I have made. Instead of using indicators in default settings, it is better to understand how the trend develops, from the top and the bottom as the center. In the 2nd cycle this was 52 bars and in the 3rd cycle this was 76 bars (footnote here is that 3rd cycle has a double top and 1st top has been considered as the highest one because of higher RSI).
Momentum indicators are great in analyzing of trend strenghts. That is why RSI has been chosen that acts as a metric for changes in the prices as well the speed at which they change for a particular period (RSI length 52 instead of 14 because of as mentioned earlier). So far not any hint till I added Momemtum indicator and used RSI as the source instead of the closing price. When the RSI crosses up the RSI-based MA (in the Momentum indicator) the trend is strong again. This event happened with the close of the last week in the 3rd cycle. So should we buckle up?
I have added Fibonacci Retracement. As starting point has been used the moment RSI goes below 50 level.
The moment that RSI crosses up 50 level will be correction level of 4th cycle’s bull market and after that bull market will continue.
Would not it be nice if the price hits the same levels in the 4th cycle?
Left: 2nd cycle
Right: 3rd cycle
PS. If you like this idea, check my other ideas as well.