BTC/USD Whats next? 35K or 4K? - Honestly, I don't know! No one knows. Neither the nice guy or OG shilling 50k targets on Twitter, nor the super-rich looking crypto hedge fund manager in an expensive suit with a Rolex on his wrist. For understanding the chart and my thoughts, I advise you to read my comment below, as the explanation got too long...
I want to add this chart to my previously posted “bearish biased” chart to show you, and explain you, the other possible outcome (bull scenario) as well as how I gonna fight the market within the upcoming future.
Currently I am mainly in cash and wait for another low risk high reward trade. For those who get the feeling of FOMO please keep in mind the way from 5.6k to 8.2k was a 42% paper gain which I am always willing to pay, once it leads to more secure trades. Remember this way I am not losing cash!
If we now establish some sideways price action and continue with a bullish breakout of this zone, I believe targets around 10k (previous high) are a reasonable target. There I expect at least some resistance which could bring us again to current price levels to test if prior resistance turns support. If we !successfully! Retest this S&R level I would add a higher volume bullish trade. Because of the following reasons:
1) it is the first time we have established a high equally to the previous one, which is a further indicator for an end of the bear season.
2) I get a tradable set-up to put a close stop-loss (fractal low of the retest, or prior resistance that turned support)
The bear season (in my opinion) is over, once we break the 10k zone and successfully turned 10k resistance into support.
There could still be the possibility that we keep on ranging between 10k and 6k and that this zone keeps being the accumulation zone. If that is going to happen, my tight stop loss will be triggered but I haven't lost a lot. Therefore, I can buy back in cheaper again.
But please remember once you size your position. A black swan event or negative outcome from the ETF decision could always lead to shift the market again. Then it is time to develop a new strategy!
Keep in mind: There is always a trade for another day!
I hope you found it useful and also going to read the longer comment below, for a deeper insight!
If you like it, please support my idea by clicking the like button or share it with your friends! For further analysis and announcements do not hesitate to follow me ;)
Cheers ;)
I want to add this chart to my previously posted “bearish biased” chart to show you, and explain you, the other possible outcome (bull scenario) as well as how I gonna fight the market within the upcoming future.
Currently I am mainly in cash and wait for another low risk high reward trade. For those who get the feeling of FOMO please keep in mind the way from 5.6k to 8.2k was a 42% paper gain which I am always willing to pay, once it leads to more secure trades. Remember this way I am not losing cash!
If we now establish some sideways price action and continue with a bullish breakout of this zone, I believe targets around 10k (previous high) are a reasonable target. There I expect at least some resistance which could bring us again to current price levels to test if prior resistance turns support. If we !successfully! Retest this S&R level I would add a higher volume bullish trade. Because of the following reasons:
1) it is the first time we have established a high equally to the previous one, which is a further indicator for an end of the bear season.
2) I get a tradable set-up to put a close stop-loss (fractal low of the retest, or prior resistance that turned support)
The bear season (in my opinion) is over, once we break the 10k zone and successfully turned 10k resistance into support.
There could still be the possibility that we keep on ranging between 10k and 6k and that this zone keeps being the accumulation zone. If that is going to happen, my tight stop loss will be triggered but I haven't lost a lot. Therefore, I can buy back in cheaper again.
But please remember once you size your position. A black swan event or negative outcome from the ETF decision could always lead to shift the market again. Then it is time to develop a new strategy!
Keep in mind: There is always a trade for another day!
I hope you found it useful and also going to read the longer comment below, for a deeper insight!
If you like it, please support my idea by clicking the like button or share it with your friends! For further analysis and announcements do not hesitate to follow me ;)
Cheers ;)
Thinking about what influences the price action (whether through futures settlement, market manipulation or ETF news, etc.) or why something happens (sell off, or blow off) is something a lot of traders (in my opinion do) but is at least most of the time, a waste of time. For sure, it could be a way to guess where the market is heading. Why something happens (sell off, or blow off) is something a lot of new traders (in my opinion) do. For me it is at least, most of the time, a waste of time. If you developed a strategy like that and it works, that’s nice. Glory to you (a hopefully a lot of cash! - if you want, you can tell me the secret as well ;)). But it is not my style of developing a trading strategy. To trade based on that a trader has to back test his strategy based on past data, to make sure the strategy works, so that the probability of the future price development increases. This is definitely time-consuming and is often done poorly. Furthermore, often the past data to back test these strategies can't be accessed.
As you can see, I shared the 1D BTC/USD chart with you to show you the bigger picture of the current market. As you can see, we are technically still on the backside of the trend and (until now) made only higher lows. This explains my "bearish" bias. This bearish bias does not indicate that I 100x short every time I see a short set up. NO! Definitely NOT! But based on what is in front of me, I cannot *yolo* long either. Just because everybody calls for 100k and the biggest bull run of human history, does not mean that this is going to happen. Is it possible that current bulls are right and the area around 5.8k was the bottom? - For sure! But should I as a trader now jump in the market after we "rallied" for around one month? Definitely not! I firmly believe there will develop be better tradable set-ups to trade to the upside. Finally, I want to explain to you why these lower highs appear/develop/establish.
The lower highs at the backside of the trend develop mainly through salty bag holders who want to get rid of their bags and just wait for the price to go up and be able to sell into strength to 1) finally book profit or 2) cut or minimize their risk. For sure, dip buyers will 1) secure at least some profits by hedging on sideways action after a pump, or 2) realize their full profits. Additionally, speculators step in as well, and short the market once they see weakness in the chart and fuel the downtrend. Remember, in a clear bull trend, you should look for bullish trade set-ups. Within a technical bear trend, someone should look for bearish trade set-ups. Fighting against a trend is super risky and often leads to huge losses.