Over the last two bull-runs, Bitcoin has been trading in a relatively predictable pattern. In this analysis I want to take a closer look at this pattern and discuss my BEST-CASE scenario for the next bull-run.
* BTC has been trading within the bullish channel Since July 2017 (more than 6 years). Every time the support was touched it produced a local low, every time the resistance was touched it produced a local top.
* Bitcoin topped (green) between 74 and 78 weeks after the halving (yellow) took place.
Knowing this, we can predict the next Bitcoin top with relative certainty. Naturally, assuming that this pattern will continue to hold.
* The next BTC top will be somewhere between 15 Sept 2025 and 13 Oct 2025, 74 and 78 weeks after the next halving.
* The next BTC top will touch the top resistance of the channel somewhere between 300,000 and 320,000.
An argument can be made that Bitcoin is experiencing diminishing returns over the years, invalidating this analysis. However, the move from (roughly) 3k > 69k is bigger than the move from 15.5k > 320k. The returns are not diminishing as fast as before, but it's still diminished.
Personally, I don't think this outcome is likely. Market conditions have deteriorated significantly with rising interest rates and inflation. Hence I call this my "best-case" scenario. I'd be surprised if the next bull-run will bring us above 150k, but time will tell.
Where and when do you think Bitcoin will top? Share your analyses below.🙏
* BTC has been trading within the bullish channel Since July 2017 (more than 6 years). Every time the support was touched it produced a local low, every time the resistance was touched it produced a local top.
* Bitcoin topped (green) between 74 and 78 weeks after the halving (yellow) took place.
Knowing this, we can predict the next Bitcoin top with relative certainty. Naturally, assuming that this pattern will continue to hold.
* The next BTC top will be somewhere between 15 Sept 2025 and 13 Oct 2025, 74 and 78 weeks after the next halving.
* The next BTC top will touch the top resistance of the channel somewhere between 300,000 and 320,000.
An argument can be made that Bitcoin is experiencing diminishing returns over the years, invalidating this analysis. However, the move from (roughly) 3k > 69k is bigger than the move from 15.5k > 320k. The returns are not diminishing as fast as before, but it's still diminished.
Personally, I don't think this outcome is likely. Market conditions have deteriorated significantly with rising interest rates and inflation. Hence I call this my "best-case" scenario. I'd be surprised if the next bull-run will bring us above 150k, but time will tell.
Where and when do you think Bitcoin will top? Share your analyses below.🙏
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