In this chart there are a lot of references I need to explain properly
1. The trendline linking all the post halving ATH this trend line will be my reference line in predicting the top in this bull market
2. the vertical line indicating the past halving dates
The 2012 post halving Bull market lasted for about 52 weeks, the 2016 Bull market lasted for about 74 weeks, you should notice the increasing bull market date range and the diminishing bear market date range. well, I will blame this on mainstream adoption and a lot of retailers and people becoming aware of bitcoin and the benefits of decentralization so more buyers than sellers
the 2016 pre-halving bear market lasted for about 136 weeks, the 2020 pre-halving bear market lasted for about 126 weeks, notice the diminishing date range for BEARS and also increasing data range for Bulls
Let base our predictions on 2 assumptions
a. we should assume that we would have a bull market that would last for more than 74 weeks post halving I want to pick a 92weeks post-halving bear market for 2020
b. we should assume that we would have a bear market that would last for less than 126 weeks, I want to pick a 118weeks pre-halving bear market for 2024
At 74 weeks the price of Bitcoin corresponding to the trend line linking the ATH(all time high) should be at around $314,000
At 92 weeks the price of Bitcoin corresponding to the trend line linking the ATH(all time high) should be at around $404,000
at this prices we need a market obviously more than half of Gold's market cap
1. The trendline linking all the post halving ATH this trend line will be my reference line in predicting the top in this bull market
2. the vertical line indicating the past halving dates
The 2012 post halving Bull market lasted for about 52 weeks, the 2016 Bull market lasted for about 74 weeks, you should notice the increasing bull market date range and the diminishing bear market date range. well, I will blame this on mainstream adoption and a lot of retailers and people becoming aware of bitcoin and the benefits of decentralization so more buyers than sellers
the 2016 pre-halving bear market lasted for about 136 weeks, the 2020 pre-halving bear market lasted for about 126 weeks, notice the diminishing date range for BEARS and also increasing data range for Bulls
Let base our predictions on 2 assumptions
a. we should assume that we would have a bull market that would last for more than 74 weeks post halving I want to pick a 92weeks post-halving bear market for 2020
b. we should assume that we would have a bear market that would last for less than 126 weeks, I want to pick a 118weeks pre-halving bear market for 2024
At 74 weeks the price of Bitcoin corresponding to the trend line linking the ATH(all time high) should be at around $314,000
At 92 weeks the price of Bitcoin corresponding to the trend line linking the ATH(all time high) should be at around $404,000
at this prices we need a market obviously more than half of Gold's market cap
