Background: Bitcoin has been in an ascending channel (past 48 hours), within a larger descending channel (past 9 days). This is the last leg of a combination correction starting after we reached 58k in late February. Of note the 61k was an ambitious corrective B wave, confusing a lot of traders who expected a breakthrough. The fact that this correction dragged on since late February was due to several factors- excess greed (reference greed/fear index), some well timed good news stories, and the US stimulus. This is why it felt like Bitcoin refused to correct deeper, but also refused to climb. Luckily this past week saw Bitcoin fall out of its indecision thanks in some part to the 6 billion in options that expired today.
Recent Events:
Two weeks ago BTC began a deeper corrective wave following the new ATH at 61k. Bears made a concerted effort but couldn't push the price below the 100 MA (4hr chart), resulting in about a 14% correction to 42k. Here bulls regained short term momentum and pushed the price weakly to 60k, but they were decisively rejected by the bear and never broke through.
This rejection led to BTC ranging, and eventually falling into the descending channel its in now, falling below the 200 MA yesterday where bears were finally exhausted as bulls setup a strong position at 50k. Bears oversold their position at 50k, which eventually flipped bullish and reversed to the uptrend we are now in. If you got a long in at 50k, count yourself lucky, it only wicked there a few times over a couple hour period.
Bulls continued to uptrend since 50k, not running into resistance until 54k, where bear again setup a strong position rebuffing the growing bullish momentum. This rejection at 54k turned into the ascending triangle pattern we are in now. The triangle suggests that bears are losing steam, unable to press the price down, while bulls continue to close the gap candle by candle. Ascending triangles are generally a continuation pattern, and this being an uptrend indicates a breakout North.
Alternatively, we are still in a precarious position- its incumbent on bears to breakthrough the resistance at 54k, and later at around 55k to break out of the larger two week descending channel. Bears will be succesful in either case if they can close short term under ~53.3k.
15 Minute Chart:
1 Hour Chart:
4 Hour Chart:
Bull Run Still Valid?
Recent Events:
Two weeks ago BTC began a deeper corrective wave following the new ATH at 61k. Bears made a concerted effort but couldn't push the price below the 100 MA (4hr chart), resulting in about a 14% correction to 42k. Here bulls regained short term momentum and pushed the price weakly to 60k, but they were decisively rejected by the bear and never broke through.
This rejection led to BTC ranging, and eventually falling into the descending channel its in now, falling below the 200 MA yesterday where bears were finally exhausted as bulls setup a strong position at 50k. Bears oversold their position at 50k, which eventually flipped bullish and reversed to the uptrend we are now in. If you got a long in at 50k, count yourself lucky, it only wicked there a few times over a couple hour period.
Bulls continued to uptrend since 50k, not running into resistance until 54k, where bear again setup a strong position rebuffing the growing bullish momentum. This rejection at 54k turned into the ascending triangle pattern we are in now. The triangle suggests that bears are losing steam, unable to press the price down, while bulls continue to close the gap candle by candle. Ascending triangles are generally a continuation pattern, and this being an uptrend indicates a breakout North.
Alternatively, we are still in a precarious position- its incumbent on bears to breakthrough the resistance at 54k, and later at around 55k to break out of the larger two week descending channel. Bears will be succesful in either case if they can close short term under ~53.3k.
15 Minute Chart:
- Bullish indicators: VFI remains bullish at ~3, ascending triangle formed at top of uptrend, options expired and is past us, Stoch RSI trending down (currently ~18 (indicating undersold)
- Bearish indicators :
1 Hour Chart:
- Bullish indicators: VFI is interesting- trending up currently from the most bearish its been since January at the lowest point of that correction
- Bearish incidators: Stoch RSI trending up (currently 84 indicating overbought)
4 Hour Chart:
- Bullish indicators: VFI is uptrending bullish for the first time in 72 hours, Stoch RSI is at 74 (but trending up)
- Bearish indicators: The scariest bearish indicator- we fell out of the supertrend we were in for the past 3 months but that alone isn't as strong an indicator against the multiple bullish indicators appearing
Bull Run Still Valid?
- Bull: Pi indicator is growing close, but not yet crossed over bearish
- Bull: Exchange Inflow is in decline 7 months now, and not remotely close to levels that indicate a large selloff. Currently at 1.2, warning signs start at 2 and likely mass selloff once inflow exceed 2.5
- Bull: MVRV exceeding 4 would indicate a possible top of cycle coming. Currently sitting around 3.12, so elevated but not at risk yet
- Stock 2 Flow: stock2flow indicates a cycle top of around 100k is achievable