Its interesting to see that the 200smma death cross on 2014 and current phases occurs on the upper after a similar time period. If the current trend were to follow 2014 further in similarity, then a selling climax may occur on or near the lower .
When the trend finished in 2014, price moved above the 200smma and moved passed the dotted 'warning line' of the , showing the end of the trend. This was shortly followed by a golden cross.
Bitcoin's favourite 0.618fib is approaching along with the upper again. A move down from here towards the seems likely if Bitcoin is to continue in corrective similarity to 2014 (see previous idea for more detail on previous oscillations and fib levels).
Much of this idea was learned from 'Waves618' who is the king ;)
If price does move down from here it is likely to be impulsive because 1) It will break yearly market structure low of around 5.8-6k. 2) A lot of 'cause' is building up in this elongated and tightening price band throughout 2018. The 'effect' would be a release and a sudden shift to higher volatility; the next bearish phase.
Perhaps another corrective ascending channel will form, but this time it will likely be shorter as the upper median line forces price downward. Potentially a big drop coming
A somewhat similar spike happened in 2014 where a downward fakeout was followed by an upward fakeout, before price then plummeted into capitulation.
“People want to buy cheap and sell dear; this by itself makes them countertrend. But the notion of cheapness or dearness must be anchored to something. People tend to view the prices they’re used to as normal and prices removed from these levels as aberrant. This perspective leads people to trade counter to an emerging trend on the assumption that prices will eventually return to “normal." Therein lies the path to disaster.” – William Eckhardt