dRends35
Short

Bitcoin: Using pitchforks to compare with 2014 bear market

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Pitchforks are a good tool for seeing trends and in this case, corrective price action. Throughout much of the 2014 trend, Bitcoin price respects the channel between the median to upper median lines. However it does foray down to near the lower median line to form the selling climax.



Its interesting to see that the 200smma death cross on 2014 and current bearish phases occurs on the upper median line after a similar time period. If the current trend were to follow 2014 further in similarity, then a selling climax may occur on or near the lower median line .

When the trend finished in 2014, price moved above the 200smma and moved passed the dotted 'warning line' of the pitchfork , showing the end of the trend. This was shortly followed by a golden cross.

Bitcoin's favourite 0.618fib is approaching along with the upper median line again. A move down from here towards the median line seems likely if Bitcoin is to continue in corrective similarity to 2014 (see previous idea for more detail on previous oscillations and fib levels).



Much of this idea was learned from 'Waves618' who is the pitchfork king ;)
Comment: If Bitcoin is to continue the corrective structure then price will not break the upper trendline that sideways action is now approaching. Price could breach in a fakeout / breakout, but that would be something new that price has not performed this year. Volume is very low. Fib levels have been respected all the way along. Percentages suggest this is not a bottom and price will be moving down soon enough.

If price does move down from here it is likely to be impulsive because 1) It will break yearly market structure low of around 5.8-6k. 2) A lot of 'cause' is building up in this elongated and tightening price band throughout 2018. The 'effect' would be a release and a sudden shift to higher volatility; the next bearish phase.

Comment: Upper median line*
Comment: Price has respected the upper median line again and now the trend is likely solidified for a downward move. Bitcoin has had a very uniform price structure in this bear market and this can be seen here by how tidily price is respecting the median and upper median lines.

Perhaps another corrective ascending channel will form, but this time it will likely be shorter as the upper median line forces price downward. Potentially a big drop coming
Comment: This price spike and slippage does not look healthy. Price closed within the upper median line.

A somewhat similar spike happened in 2014 where a downward fakeout was followed by an upward fakeout, before price then plummeted into capitulation.
Comment: Longs are padding out at 40K. They have been diverging with price throughout the bear market against the dominant trend. Will knife catching heroes be rewarded for their bravery, or will there be a further move down...

Comment: Back in play within the upper median line. Different structure but similar in loosely respecting these boundaries. Looking very bearish now.

Comment:
learn about mining activity before TA....
Reply
dRends35 RaphaelJolly
@RaphaelJolly, Mining costs provide an imagined price landmark held dear by many a hero. A line in the sand with the tide coming in.

“People want to buy cheap and sell dear; this by itself makes them countertrend. But the notion of cheapness or dearness must be anchored to something. People tend to view the prices they’re used to as normal and prices removed from these levels as aberrant. This perspective leads people to trade counter to an emerging trend on the assumption that prices will eventually return to “normal." Therein lies the path to disaster.” – William Eckhardt
Reply
LijiLe dRends35
@dRends35, very well said. Whenever i hear people saying the mining cost, it just shows them how ignorant they are...
+1 Reply
@LijiLe, @RaphaelJolly And as always price moves irrespective of imaginations such as mining costs and whatnot. Catch the gravy train, not falling knives.
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