Using Ethereum to understand Bitcoin and market sentiment

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Comparing Altcoin charts with Bitcoin provides a perspective of current market sentiment and the future of Bitcoin and Crypto as a whole. The majority of altcoins are now loosing value significantly. Many of the larger coins are now losing all of their value since the 2018 'Altcoin season' and are whittling away to pre-2018 values. There are however a few coins that are holding up (for now) e.g. DGB , XLM .

Ethereum's chart is useful as it is the No.1 altcoin (in value) and provides the backbone for many coins that run on its protocol.

Looking at the the charts, the coloured boxes highlight Bitcoin's bullish phases and the clear boxes show Bitcoin's pullbacks to the upside. Each corrective oscillation so far has peaked at 0.618 fib of previous. Price bands have decreased uniformly with each oscillation.

Looking at the Ethereum chart ETHBTC below: From 7th April Ethereum provided a good swing trading opportunity and it rallied through Bitcoin's bullish phase. It also increased a little during Bitcoin's pullbacks. On the downside of Bitcoin's oscillation, Ethereum lost value to Bitcoin , as can be expected.

The sentiment changed as Bitcoin rallied into another oscillation beginning on the 29th June. Ethereum lost significant value to Bitcoin as it rallied, and then continued to lose value as Bitcoin moved to the downside. From there (10th August), Bitcoin pulled back until its current value today.

Now looking at ETHUSD below: On the previous oscillation, when Bitcoin pulled back Ethereum responded positively, moving a little to the upside. Now on the current pullback, Ethereum continues to plummet lower and has now passed back into pre-2018 values, having lost all of its value from the 2018 'altcoin season.' It is also passing through longterm support held from August - November 2017.

Ethereum (as many other coins) is showing a bearish perspective. Although Bitcoin has rallied in late June and most of July, Ethereum has not and apart from a few shallow pullbacks, it has moved to the downside since 6th-May. ETHBTC/ ETHUSD has now passed through a death cross on the 50/200smma on the daily chart . Bitcoin looks set to do the same shortly.

Altcoins momentum is increasing to the downside with less relief rallies and shallow pull backs. Bitcoin however is oscillating within a narrowing price band. Will Bitcoin follow Ethereum into a more impulsive phase to the downside? Will Altcoins capitulate in reaction to this? Let's see.

Do feel free to add to this in the comments section. Constructive comments, nonconstructive, heckling, trolling all welcome. 'Like' if you like. Sorry, there is no thumbs down if you don't.
Comment: Viewing this 'altcoin rally' from the cheap seats. The top coins have twitched like a dead cat so far. Letting the skilled traders and heroes do their thing.
Comment: Ethereum now seems to be forming a pennant on ETHUSD. If Bitcoin has found the top and makes another impulsive move down to 5-5.5k range then it is likely that the Ethereum pennant with be a continuation pattern. If another leg down was similar to previous, Ethereum would arrive at around $116.

If Bitcoin is about to form the second half of a now rather elongated oscillation (see related idea) then many of the Altcoins will (likely) follow and lose to Bitcoin and will not have had any significant relief since early May.

The flip-side of this is that if Bitcoin were to have another corrective relief rally after another impulse down, Altcoins (of worth) could be ready to have a significant rally against Bitcoin.
Comment: A key support level for ETHBTC is is 0.024 sats. There is no support until there, so likely they'll be a bounce there, especially if there are no bounces until then. Again, market sentiment can be judged by this.

Comment: Ethereum has become the dump coin, lots of selling and with only a little upward tickle from Bitcoin, has pumped from 170 to 225. When Bitcoin likely plummets further, breaking market structure low and then a relief rally follows, Ethereum may have a massive pump as soon as Bitcoin moves sideways
Comment: Ethereum looks to be forming a continuation pattern and may move sideways until Bitcoin makes a move. Bitcoin is approaching the edge of its upper median line (see related idea - pitchfork) and so the path of least resistance is to continue in corrective price action. A large move down may arrive shortly.



Good perspective. We need more of this here. Someone that can look at the bigger picture :)
+2 Reply
Bitcoin does seem incredibly weak. Thanks for the perspective
+2 Reply
That's exactly what i thought.
+1 Reply
I am seeking advice on my ideas below from traders in various countries. I would like to ask your advice.
And what do you think about the CBOE's ETF at the end of September and the BAKKT Exchange launching in November?

You refer to value when I believe you mean price. The two are most certainly not the same..
dRends35 theansweris42
@theansweris42, Noted, thanks.
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