I plan to do a more comprehensive writeup on each cycle but one thing is clear- on higher timeframes Bitcoin is posting a distinct pattern this cycle, and a complete deviation from historical norms. In fact, you might reasonably suggest that based on the pattern alone, this is a bullish trajectory.
That said, obviously we have layers of complexity here, macroeconomic factors, more investors, more traders, more institutions and heavier whales than ever before. So pattern alone isn't a confirmation we will see upside this year.. perhaps we won't. But it does reflect the growing trust and adoption in the marketplace, as investors managed to drive up the support on higher timeframes while bears only managed to hold the line on a flat resistance in the upper $60k range.
In terms of where I'll confirm overwhelming bearish sentiment- I'm targeting $34k as my bottommost support. That is where the support from July 2021 currently sits. A bounce from there will still represent a higher high, it will still have served to flush all the leverage from the market and it won't invalidate the higher timeframe ascending triangle possibly at play.
That said, I need to do some more analysis this weekend.. and sleep on it a bit. More to follow thru the weekend.
That said, obviously we have layers of complexity here, macroeconomic factors, more investors, more traders, more institutions and heavier whales than ever before. So pattern alone isn't a confirmation we will see upside this year.. perhaps we won't. But it does reflect the growing trust and adoption in the marketplace, as investors managed to drive up the support on higher timeframes while bears only managed to hold the line on a flat resistance in the upper $60k range.
In terms of where I'll confirm overwhelming bearish sentiment- I'm targeting $34k as my bottommost support. That is where the support from July 2021 currently sits. A bounce from there will still represent a higher high, it will still have served to flush all the leverage from the market and it won't invalidate the higher timeframe ascending triangle possibly at play.
That said, I need to do some more analysis this weekend.. and sleep on it a bit. More to follow thru the weekend.