Disclaimer: I only use consistencies that are found in all cycles from '13 & beyond when predicting movement. There are a lot of them.
First, I'm looking at the fib retracements that fall in a range that I define in my related idea '259k bullmarket top & how' or 'Holy Grail' for more details.
Pulling the retracement from the bottom of the range and the 0.618 to the top of the range defines the 3.618 as the top of past cycles. This leads to a 222k top for this cycle, which is within my target prices (see related ideas).
The next consistency is the amount of days we were in between the 0.236 & the 0.618 fibs. It was roughly 68 days in '13 & '17. We're looking to be on track to passing that 62k mark next week if this stays consistent between cycles.
The time we reach the top from breaking the 0.618 isn't consistent, so I don't really speak on that. The time it takes gets longer, so maybe that would mean March/April of next year if that pattern continues.
Final thoughts: My green 0.618 fib is my best guess as to where we currently are when comparing cycles. Each cycle sat around that fib for about a week and took another week to to pop out of the white 0.618. So that could be interpreted as October 21st when we finally cross that line.
If we dip much further below and cannot rebound like in '13, I may have to reconsider a how the rest of this cycle plays out. By the amount of consistencies I've found between all cycles so far (see related ideas), I'm very confident that we reach 200k+ by year end.
First, I'm looking at the fib retracements that fall in a range that I define in my related idea '259k bullmarket top & how' or 'Holy Grail' for more details.
Pulling the retracement from the bottom of the range and the 0.618 to the top of the range defines the 3.618 as the top of past cycles. This leads to a 222k top for this cycle, which is within my target prices (see related ideas).
The next consistency is the amount of days we were in between the 0.236 & the 0.618 fibs. It was roughly 68 days in '13 & '17. We're looking to be on track to passing that 62k mark next week if this stays consistent between cycles.
The time we reach the top from breaking the 0.618 isn't consistent, so I don't really speak on that. The time it takes gets longer, so maybe that would mean March/April of next year if that pattern continues.
Final thoughts: My green 0.618 fib is my best guess as to where we currently are when comparing cycles. Each cycle sat around that fib for about a week and took another week to to pop out of the white 0.618. So that could be interpreted as October 21st when we finally cross that line.
If we dip much further below and cannot rebound like in '13, I may have to reconsider a how the rest of this cycle plays out. By the amount of consistencies I've found between all cycles so far (see related ideas), I'm very confident that we reach 200k+ by year end.
Comment:
tapped, historically appears to liftoff soon after hitting this level. Compare the cycles yourself before just believing me...
Comment:
0.382 of a fib I placed at the 222k (while we were at 53k) mark was hit directly, supporting the idea that we may be playing off a 1.0 fib or target price in the 200k+ zone
