Already defining 10+ backtest approved reasons why 200k+ is expected, I've added one more fib-based reason why we should be seeing those levels near the end of the year.
Placing a reverse log fib with the 0 at the top at the 1.618 at the previous bear market low, it establishes a range pretty well defined between the 0.5 & the 0.786. The significance of this is identifying where we may be relative to past bull market cycles. 2013 & 2017 have consistent fib ranges, and '21 has so far been no different. Predictively placing the 0 fib at 240k and the 1.618 at the previous bear market low defines the range we've been sitting in for 10 months exactly the same as 2013. 240k is in the ballpark of many 200k + targets.
I've already established this range many times in different ways to show confluence and make ensure I'm not confirming my bullish bias.
Zooming into just 2021 & taking the July reversals seen in 2013 and 2017, we're following price action pretty similarly. The September/October reversals seen in 2013, 2017 and again in 2021 only added to my confidence. Based on these monthly reversals, seeing every other point of confluence, and looking at the price action against past cycles, we're likely on path to seeing euphoric price action within the next week or 2.
With so many similarities, why should this time be much different? 200k+ is hard for me to even believe, but I can't shake the consistency I've been finding. It only adds to my conviction when I see price action mimicking the past cycles so conveniently.
If we break above this 0.5 fib at 62.5k, I'll be 95% convinced of 200k+. If we break above the 0.382 at 85.9k before December, I'll be 100% convinced of 200k+. With that said, I'm still playing my bags rather conservatively. The real money has yet to be made, no reason to lose it to leverage before euphoria. 62.5k is that line in the sand for me.
Best of luck!
This is my last update until we pass 62.5k or capitulate under 40k before that.
Placing a reverse log fib with the 0 at the top at the 1.618 at the previous bear market low, it establishes a range pretty well defined between the 0.5 & the 0.786. The significance of this is identifying where we may be relative to past bull market cycles. 2013 & 2017 have consistent fib ranges, and '21 has so far been no different. Predictively placing the 0 fib at 240k and the 1.618 at the previous bear market low defines the range we've been sitting in for 10 months exactly the same as 2013. 240k is in the ballpark of many 200k + targets.
I've already established this range many times in different ways to show confluence and make ensure I'm not confirming my bullish bias.
Zooming into just 2021 & taking the July reversals seen in 2013 and 2017, we're following price action pretty similarly. The September/October reversals seen in 2013, 2017 and again in 2021 only added to my confidence. Based on these monthly reversals, seeing every other point of confluence, and looking at the price action against past cycles, we're likely on path to seeing euphoric price action within the next week or 2.
With so many similarities, why should this time be much different? 200k+ is hard for me to even believe, but I can't shake the consistency I've been finding. It only adds to my conviction when I see price action mimicking the past cycles so conveniently.
If we break above this 0.5 fib at 62.5k, I'll be 95% convinced of 200k+. If we break above the 0.382 at 85.9k before December, I'll be 100% convinced of 200k+. With that said, I'm still playing my bags rather conservatively. The real money has yet to be made, no reason to lose it to leverage before euphoria. 62.5k is that line in the sand for me.
Best of luck!
This is my last update until we pass 62.5k or capitulate under 40k before that.
