🅱️ Bitcoin Weekly | RSI, Long-Term Targets & 20K

This is Bitcoins weekly RSI

The peak hit on this oscillator happened December 2023 and it hit as high as February 2021, a major achievement. This was truly a massive, splendid bullish wave; There will be more.

The weekly RSI becomes "overbought" when it turns green.
This is matched by a rounded top or inverted cup pattern.

A long-term lower high (Dec. 2023 vs Jan. 2021).

The RSI going down doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin will stop growing but it is a signal of weakness. When we combine this signal with others, we can say that Bitcoin is going lower.

The next chart is BTCUSD on the weekly timeframe

Notice the volume as #2, this is the highest bear volume on a weekly session since November 2022, when Bitcoin hit a major market bottom.

The fact that such high volume relatively speaking is showing up now, after more than a year of growth, signals that we will experience a bearish wave.

Look up and we have #1, this is the current weekly session.
While a session is active any signal coming from it can change, confirmation comes only when the session closes.

This week is coming to an end, closing within ~35 hours.

We can see based on the long upper wick that the week started green, BTCUSD moved up. As the week unfolds we can see a red real body, meaning that Bitcoin's price moved down below the weeks open. So it went up but now is actually trading lower than the open. This whole dynamic is strongly bearish.

When we consider this being the first bearish close on high volume after a massive rise and the Bitcoin Merge, it leaves no room for guessing...

Here is the good news, opportunities are all around us, this will develop into a very nice buy opportunity, the last one of 2024.

Bitcoin will perform its correction but afterward we will be blessed with a green year, it can start red but it will end green.

Just as the week started green and will end red;
The year can start red but end green.

Targets

All the levels that were conquered as resistance in 2023 need to be tested as support.
We will measure those using the moving averages.

➖ Weekly EMA50 is easy, that's around 32,000.
➖ Weekly MA200 is mandatory, that's around 30,000.

➖ TA points towards a need to test EMA200 which sits around 27,000 right now.
➖ Weekly EMA300 was tested in March but after strong growth, it can be visited again, around 23,800.

👉 Finally, the strong surprise move can be a wick that goes beyond all expectations; This can be the move that reaches toward 20K.

These are the target for the full duration of the bearish wave.

The low can be a surprise hit and happen within 1 month, say à la early 2018 but the whole process can last between 2-4 months.

This is all speculation of course, we have to wait and see how everything will develop.

We can predict what will happen to Bitcoin with a high level of accuracy based on those Altcoins that will move first, how far down they reach, etc. We will know how the rest of the market will move. What one does, the rest follows; Will still be valid, useful and true.

How are you feeling today?

Namaste.

Comment:

🅱️ But what about the bulls? I hear you saying...

The most important level to consider on a weekly basis for any bullish potential to become active, is 43,926.6. This is the highest close on a weekly session since the break above 40,000.

If Bitcoin (BTCUSD) can move and close weekly above 43,926 or 44,000 rounded up, bullish potential becomes active.

The weekly session closes in 32 hours.

Comment:

This weekly candle is now closed.
The session ended as an inverted hammer.

The inverted hammer is a bearish candlestick pattern and it needs to come at the top of a trend to be valid as a reversal signal.

High volume and confirmation makes the signal stronger.

Correction potential now set at around 95/96% probability.

Comment:

The bearish bias on a weekly basis is now stronger, the week has a little over two days before closing.

We have today a bearish continuation.
Last support stands as EMA10 (40327), when BTCUSD moves below expect for things to speed up.
It will start shy and then gain massive speed. It will be heartbreaking for many, it will profitable for a few.

We were expecting this so no surprise.

We will track the entire wave down and then buy at the bottom of the correction in expectation of the next bullish wave.

Up and down, up and down, up and down... Over and over.

Namaste.

Comment:

The Bitcoin weekly chart is ultra-bearish, don't let them fool you.

Just now the action is moving below EMA10 and the week is young, plenty of time for massive red/down/crash/bad/blood...

I will share new trade ideas when the time to buy is right... Once all of our targets hit on the trade ideas with the full numbers.

For now, just be patient, step back or adapt to current market conditions.

I am wishing you the best.