So the rare blue hash ribbon buy signal just appeared. Historically, this always was a great time for long term accumulation. Every new ATH always had a new blue hash ribbon buy signal beforehand.
However, while this was in the past great news to get bullish, this time it might be different.
How I interpret it:
Usually when mining become less profitable, miners start to turn of their rigs and lower their settings to have less power costs. The mining hashrate goes down, less efficient miners sell their saved Bitcoins and hardware to cover costs. This usually happens after a slow drawn out decline or long sideways movement. They try to stay in the game as long as possible until they eventually capitulate.
Companies that can run big mining operations however know what they are doing, they can keep mining and even buy up the sold hardware.
And when the price has positive momentum again, the hashrate starts to recover and we get our blue buy signal.
This time however we also have to consider that the hashrate not only went down because the price went down but also because China decided to ban mining. We can see in the chart how big the hashrate drop was this time. So the question is, would the blue buy signal also appear without the China hashrate drop? That event is clearly an outlier, hard to tell what the price and hashrate would have done with out Chinas crackdown on mining.
Does this means we reached the bottom already and it is only uphill from here or is this is just signaling a brief relief rally before we continue the down trend?
I remain bullish until the chart tells me otherwise.
However, while this was in the past great news to get bullish, this time it might be different.
How I interpret it:
Usually when mining become less profitable, miners start to turn of their rigs and lower their settings to have less power costs. The mining hashrate goes down, less efficient miners sell their saved Bitcoins and hardware to cover costs. This usually happens after a slow drawn out decline or long sideways movement. They try to stay in the game as long as possible until they eventually capitulate.
Companies that can run big mining operations however know what they are doing, they can keep mining and even buy up the sold hardware.
And when the price has positive momentum again, the hashrate starts to recover and we get our blue buy signal.
This time however we also have to consider that the hashrate not only went down because the price went down but also because China decided to ban mining. We can see in the chart how big the hashrate drop was this time. So the question is, would the blue buy signal also appear without the China hashrate drop? That event is clearly an outlier, hard to tell what the price and hashrate would have done with out Chinas crackdown on mining.
Does this means we reached the bottom already and it is only uphill from here or is this is just signaling a brief relief rally before we continue the down trend?
I remain bullish until the chart tells me otherwise.
Comment:
I should also mention that once the blue buy signal appeared we never saw the previous low again, with the exception of the low during the Covid crash, which was also an outlier.
Comment:
The buy signal actually disappeared again. Seems like I called it a bit early.
