In my last analysis, I was a bit devided by the price action of Bitcoin. Bitcoin broke in and out of its triangle whether it was bullish or bearish. We spotted 2 false breakouts on the downside and one on the upside.
When the price was at the support line of the triangle, I said that Bitcoin had a 55% probability to rise to resistance and possibly break it. Right now, Bitcoin is at resistance again which gives me more confidence Bitcoin will rise to our target of 13k. Because the price is still in the triangle we can't get ahead of ourselves yet. So i raise my probability to 60% for the price to break bullish.
Now, this still is not enough confidence to take the trade. At least you want to be 70% sure that the trade will be successful. For that to happen, Bitcoin needs to get above the red resistance zone again. But for now i am more confident than i was yesterday. However i still am not as confident as i was 2 days ago.
To summarize: I still think it is more probable the price will reach our target of 13k. However I need to be sure for at least 70% before i make that claim again.
When the price was at the support line of the triangle, I said that Bitcoin had a 55% probability to rise to resistance and possibly break it. Right now, Bitcoin is at resistance again which gives me more confidence Bitcoin will rise to our target of 13k. Because the price is still in the triangle we can't get ahead of ourselves yet. So i raise my probability to 60% for the price to break bullish.
Now, this still is not enough confidence to take the trade. At least you want to be 70% sure that the trade will be successful. For that to happen, Bitcoin needs to get above the red resistance zone again. But for now i am more confident than i was yesterday. However i still am not as confident as i was 2 days ago.
To summarize: I still think it is more probable the price will reach our target of 13k. However I need to be sure for at least 70% before i make that claim again.