Hello again everyone! hope you all had a great new year. Despite a whole year of a bad run, I want to congratulate everyone who is still hanging in there. According to wall street cheat sheet, I would say we are officially in the depression phase. this is the final stage of the bear market before the natural cycle flips. In this post i will go in depth why I believe this.
1. This high lighted green area represents the bull market in 2013 with gains up to 52732% and the bull run lasting 763 days. The up trend in 2013 was very aggressive and severe but did not last very long. Pricing started from $2.33 to $1211
2. In early 2014 a correction was due, losing approximately 87% and lasting up to 413 days. Pricing from $1165 back to $147. After breaking the aggressive and unexpected uptrend, $147 was lowest low for 2014 bear market.
3. The market structure changed and was the start of a bullish up trend. In 2017 the bull rally reached $20k. In percentage, there was a 13690% which took about 1078 days to stop. This high lighted green area lasted longer compared to 2013's bull run but was also less aggressive. the trend lines also showed less aggression.
4. After $20k, the bear market was active again without the next high being a higher high also lasting for the entire 2018. In the time of writing this post bitcoin is currently in only down 83%~84% from all time high. Price being about $3350. In my opinion, if it follows history and previous stats, excluding world events and fundamentals, there should be another dump to $2600~$2800 (87% just like 2014's bear market) before we finally reach the lowest low.
5. The green area for 2019 bull market should last about 4.19 years being 1523 days in my opinion. With my predictions will hit or be very close to $100k USD, with a 3553% increase, of the 2018's or 2019's bear run lowest low.
My formula for these figures are:
Percentage formula
52732 (2013's bull market % gains) / 13690 (2017's bull market % gains) = 3.852 is how much % (or up trend aggression was lost) gains decreased by, from 2013 bull to 2017. That means the 2017 bull run lost 52732% by 3.852
With the same logic and calculation
13690 (bull market % gains) / 3.852 (how much uptrend aggression lost) = 3553% gain for 2019 rally
3553% x Lowest Low (Either 3100 or 2600)= 92k or 110k averaging 101k
Duration formula
1078 days (2017's bull run) / 763 days (Duration of 2013's bull run) = 1.413 increase
1078 days (2017's bull run) x 1.413 = 1523 days This is how long 2019's bull run will last which is also 4.2 years
With this calculation and formula, bitcoin next bull run will last about 1523 days which is the same as 4.2 years pricing ranging 92k~110k and averaging about 101k.
6. The last red area represents we will have will begin around 2023 if my calculations and prediction are correct. Previously, the average bear market duration lasted about a little over 400 days. I am not confident to say how long the next bear market will last because of BTC halvings, mainstream adoption, performance patches, financial implementation. Based on previous historical data.
100 000 (2022's bull run) x 0.7 (2013's & 2017's bull run correction) = approximately $30000 is where a strong support would be, if history repeats.
100 000 (2022's bull run) x 0.87 (Lowest Low of next bear market) = approximately $13000 is where the would be if the formula is still valid.
7. The dotted pink vertical lines is the exact time where BTC halving will happen. I would've drawn 2012 and 2016 but it would of made this graph too messy. All prediction so far is based on 100% technical analysis, patterns, cycles but zero fundamentals, performance upgrades, mainstream and financial adoption. In addition, the falling wedge we are experiencing ends or lands EXACTLY where the halving happens (... coincidence?). Based on supply and demand, BTC becomes more rare and scarce every time a halving occurs, this is all excluding wastage such as dead wallets, lost wallets, insignificant/unworthy transfer dust in many wallets, forgotten private keys.
8. The 3 blue arrows and bright aqua blue circles, are pointing to the lowest low in all 3 bear markets. After the lowest lows, we are considered to be in the beginning of bull markets, at the time of writing this post, bitcoins lowest low was about $3100, which is still only a 83% drop. we are still missing another short squeeze for about 4% before, I am confident to say we are very close to the beginning of another bull run. However, nothing is a 100% so we might already be at the absolute bottom, it is hard to tell as there isn't enough data to backtrack fore reassurance. The supporting trend line for 2017 & 2018 has already been broken. If we dial back to 2013 & 2014, after the supporting trend line broke and the lowest low was identified. The bull rally began. I would suggest less experienced traders should be on standby and wait for confirmation. For every second the support is not broken, we are more and more certain to be heading to a bull run, but do keep in mind, at the same time we are only half way through the falling wedge which is exactly why I am encouraging traders to be on stand by. It can always go lower.
Everything posted here is not financial advice.
If anyone has any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments. I hope you everyone takes a look at my points and maybe you extracted some value from it. Thank you for reading, until next time.
1. This high lighted green area represents the bull market in 2013 with gains up to 52732% and the bull run lasting 763 days. The up trend in 2013 was very aggressive and severe but did not last very long. Pricing started from $2.33 to $1211
2. In early 2014 a correction was due, losing approximately 87% and lasting up to 413 days. Pricing from $1165 back to $147. After breaking the aggressive and unexpected uptrend, $147 was lowest low for 2014 bear market.
3. The market structure changed and was the start of a bullish up trend. In 2017 the bull rally reached $20k. In percentage, there was a 13690% which took about 1078 days to stop. This high lighted green area lasted longer compared to 2013's bull run but was also less aggressive. the trend lines also showed less aggression.
4. After $20k, the bear market was active again without the next high being a higher high also lasting for the entire 2018. In the time of writing this post bitcoin is currently in only down 83%~84% from all time high. Price being about $3350. In my opinion, if it follows history and previous stats, excluding world events and fundamentals, there should be another dump to $2600~$2800 (87% just like 2014's bear market) before we finally reach the lowest low.
5. The green area for 2019 bull market should last about 4.19 years being 1523 days in my opinion. With my predictions will hit or be very close to $100k USD, with a 3553% increase, of the 2018's or 2019's bear run lowest low.
My formula for these figures are:
Percentage formula
52732 (2013's bull market % gains) / 13690 (2017's bull market % gains) = 3.852 is how much % (or up trend aggression was lost) gains decreased by, from 2013 bull to 2017. That means the 2017 bull run lost 52732% by 3.852
With the same logic and calculation
13690 (bull market % gains) / 3.852 (how much uptrend aggression lost) = 3553% gain for 2019 rally
3553% x Lowest Low (Either 3100 or 2600)= 92k or 110k averaging 101k
Duration formula
1078 days (2017's bull run) / 763 days (Duration of 2013's bull run) = 1.413 increase
1078 days (2017's bull run) x 1.413 = 1523 days This is how long 2019's bull run will last which is also 4.2 years
With this calculation and formula, bitcoin next bull run will last about 1523 days which is the same as 4.2 years pricing ranging 92k~110k and averaging about 101k.
6. The last red area represents we will have will begin around 2023 if my calculations and prediction are correct. Previously, the average bear market duration lasted about a little over 400 days. I am not confident to say how long the next bear market will last because of BTC halvings, mainstream adoption, performance patches, financial implementation. Based on previous historical data.
100 000 (2022's bull run) x 0.7 (2013's & 2017's bull run correction) = approximately $30000 is where a strong support would be, if history repeats.
100 000 (2022's bull run) x 0.87 (Lowest Low of next bear market) = approximately $13000 is where the would be if the formula is still valid.
7. The dotted pink vertical lines is the exact time where BTC halving will happen. I would've drawn 2012 and 2016 but it would of made this graph too messy. All prediction so far is based on 100% technical analysis, patterns, cycles but zero fundamentals, performance upgrades, mainstream and financial adoption. In addition, the falling wedge we are experiencing ends or lands EXACTLY where the halving happens (... coincidence?). Based on supply and demand, BTC becomes more rare and scarce every time a halving occurs, this is all excluding wastage such as dead wallets, lost wallets, insignificant/unworthy transfer dust in many wallets, forgotten private keys.
8. The 3 blue arrows and bright aqua blue circles, are pointing to the lowest low in all 3 bear markets. After the lowest lows, we are considered to be in the beginning of bull markets, at the time of writing this post, bitcoins lowest low was about $3100, which is still only a 83% drop. we are still missing another short squeeze for about 4% before, I am confident to say we are very close to the beginning of another bull run. However, nothing is a 100% so we might already be at the absolute bottom, it is hard to tell as there isn't enough data to backtrack fore reassurance. The supporting trend line for 2017 & 2018 has already been broken. If we dial back to 2013 & 2014, after the supporting trend line broke and the lowest low was identified. The bull rally began. I would suggest less experienced traders should be on standby and wait for confirmation. For every second the support is not broken, we are more and more certain to be heading to a bull run, but do keep in mind, at the same time we are only half way through the falling wedge which is exactly why I am encouraging traders to be on stand by. It can always go lower.
Everything posted here is not financial advice.
If anyone has any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments. I hope you everyone takes a look at my points and maybe you extracted some value from it. Thank you for reading, until next time.
