I'm back and forth on this like a see-saw.
The point, obviously, is to foresee present price action.
Observations:
1. If (and it's a big if) the current correction will mimic January, it's obviously playing out over a significantly longer timeframe. Roughly twice if not three times slower. The EMAs were more divergent going into the January correction, which explains why it was sharper and faster. They were less divergent going into this current correction, which explains why it is slower, and potentially deeper. Rapid snap of divergence in January, penetrates less. Slower turn of divergence now, penetrates deeper.
2. The EMAs are diverging radically on the present (10 Mar 2021 13:19:10) BTC chart. They did the same 14 January, at the peak of the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level from the initial downside impulse. They remained in their current formation during the dump from the 0.786 level in January.
3. The MACD line, relative to the Signal line, was more divergent in January, but it's more overheated now.
4. The RSI now is closer to 70 than it was at the same pivot point in January.
5. Volume now appears lower throughout, which suggests a slower movement. There were three major sell-offs in January. We've only seen one so far. The rest, honestly, is chop.
Conclusions:
Right now, I have none. The crossover from underneath of the MACD and Signal lines on the daily chart really gave me pause. But there are contrary signals, too.
I need to look again at Elliot Wave theory.
The point, obviously, is to foresee present price action.
Observations:
1. If (and it's a big if) the current correction will mimic January, it's obviously playing out over a significantly longer timeframe. Roughly twice if not three times slower. The EMAs were more divergent going into the January correction, which explains why it was sharper and faster. They were less divergent going into this current correction, which explains why it is slower, and potentially deeper. Rapid snap of divergence in January, penetrates less. Slower turn of divergence now, penetrates deeper.
2. The EMAs are diverging radically on the present (10 Mar 2021 13:19:10) BTC chart. They did the same 14 January, at the peak of the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level from the initial downside impulse. They remained in their current formation during the dump from the 0.786 level in January.
3. The MACD line, relative to the Signal line, was more divergent in January, but it's more overheated now.
4. The RSI now is closer to 70 than it was at the same pivot point in January.
5. Volume now appears lower throughout, which suggests a slower movement. There were three major sell-offs in January. We've only seen one so far. The rest, honestly, is chop.
Conclusions:
Right now, I have none. The crossover from underneath of the MACD and Signal lines on the daily chart really gave me pause. But there are contrary signals, too.
I need to look again at Elliot Wave theory.
Comment:
10 Mar 2021 18:06:09: Note that despite how large the last 4-hourly candle was, it didn't close above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. This puts us in a quandary, still.
Meanwhile, we're reaching now to $56.6k, which aligns to resistance tested 22 February.
This could well mark a turning point to the downside, but be careful: on the daily chart, if $56.6 is the present limit, there is a target between the 0.386 and 0.5 Fibonacci that aligns with a zone previously resistance, now support, that calls to be re-tested.
Don't mistake a return to $52k as BTC folding back upon itself on the way to $38k. I think honestly that projection is virtually invalidated. So I would expect a retest of $52k before a return to the upside.
Meanwhile, we're reaching now to $56.6k, which aligns to resistance tested 22 February.
This could well mark a turning point to the downside, but be careful: on the daily chart, if $56.6 is the present limit, there is a target between the 0.386 and 0.5 Fibonacci that aligns with a zone previously resistance, now support, that calls to be re-tested.
Don't mistake a return to $52k as BTC folding back upon itself on the way to $38k. I think honestly that projection is virtually invalidated. So I would expect a retest of $52k before a return to the upside.
AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
— From the opening of the January correction it took 6 days and 3hrs (147hrs) to reach the 0.786 of the Fibonacci retracement on the downside impulse.
— In the current correction, it has taken 16 days and 4hrs (388hrs).
— Divide 388 by 147 and you get 2.639. So this correction is 2.639 times slower than January.
— In January it took 12hrs from the peak of the 0.786 Fibonacci on the downside impulse to the beginning of the downswing that completed the correction.
12 multiplied by 2.639 gives 31.6hrs, or roughly 19hrs from now (10 Mar 2021 14:37:53).
— If $55k more or less holds for the next 19hrs, well, we'd have to pause and consider the charts again.
— Obviously any break to the upside that holds *two* candle closes above $55k would probably definitively signal that the correction is over, and that $67k is next.