ianrdouglas

BTC: T-minus 19hrs: Break up, or break down?

ianrdouglas Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
A bit of fun, based on an absurdly inane metric:

— From the opening of the January correction it took 6 days and 3hrs (147hrs) to reach the 0.786 of the Fibonacci retracement on the downside impulse.

— In the current correction, it has taken 16 days and 4hrs (388hrs).

— Divide 388 by 147 and you get 2.639. So this correction is 2.639 times slower than January.

— In January it took 12hrs from the peak of the 0.786 Fibonacci on the downside impulse to the beginning of the downswing that completed the correction. 12 multiplied by 2.639 gives 31.6hrs, or roughly 19hrs from now (10 Mar 2021 14:37:53).

— If $55k more or less holds for the next 19hrs, well, we'd have to pause and consider the charts again.

— Any break to the upside that holds two candle closes above $55k on the 4-hourly chart would, in my view, definitively signal that the correction is over, and that $67k is next.

I'm not laying bets.
Comment:
10 Mar 2021 18:06:09: Note that despite how large the last 4-hourly candle was, it didn't close above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. This puts us in a quandary, still.
Meanwhile, we're reaching now to $56.6k, which aligns to resistance tested 22 February.
This could well mark a turning point to the downside, but be careful: on the daily chart, if $56.6 is the present limit, there is a target between the 0.386 and 0.5 Fibonacci that aligns with a zone previously resistance, now support, that calls to be re-tested.
Don't mistake a return to $52k as BTC folding back upon itself on the way to $38k. I think honestly that projection is virtually invalidated. So I would expect a retest of $52k before a return to the upside.

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