I'm long term bullish on BTC for one reason: the baby boomers and their kids borrowed too much and are crashing the economy like it's 2008. When that happens, the millennials aren't likely to want to assume even more and more debt to bail their parents and grandparents out.
In 2008 there was no choice for people but to follow central bank policy. BTC has changed that though, cryptos form an alternative and ultimately cannot be regulated away. A financial crisis could see a failure of confidence in fiat money, and see an uptake of cryptos if only as a hedge.
It really doesn't take a lot to start another bull run, but (lack of) confidence is the most important factor.
People argue that you can't pay for anything with BTC which is true but it's like a savings account that you can't pay anything with either. BTC may become the most trusted store of value and you convert back and forth to other cryptos or fiat to engage in the economy. That's also why many predict the price of a single bitcoin to rise well above $50k: imagine if BTC is a global reserve currency/store and there only are 21 million then at $50k each BTC's total value is $1 trillion which at a global scale is a minor amount compared to eg total value of derivates ($544Tn) or stocks ($72Tn)
Scenarios for the next weeks:
B: bull break doesn't seem likely yet
A: ~$6100/6200 most likely heading to A2, A1 also possible
A1: Long term support (LTS) bounce @ ~$5900/5800
OR A2: trend line ~$6600
A2A: bull break bulls happy
OR A2B: Another triangle bounce or LTS
A1 bounces could also see trend line failure or a massive spring.
Bad news can see BTC failure below LTS. The only thing that can make BTC fail totally is a failure or systemic flaw of the underlying technology OR an altcoin that assumes BTC's role. The latter risk isn't insignificant, but at this time BTC is utterly dominant.
In 2008 there was no choice for people but to follow central bank policy. BTC has changed that though, cryptos form an alternative and ultimately cannot be regulated away. A financial crisis could see a failure of confidence in fiat money, and see an uptake of cryptos if only as a hedge.
It really doesn't take a lot to start another bull run, but (lack of) confidence is the most important factor.
People argue that you can't pay for anything with BTC which is true but it's like a savings account that you can't pay anything with either. BTC may become the most trusted store of value and you convert back and forth to other cryptos or fiat to engage in the economy. That's also why many predict the price of a single bitcoin to rise well above $50k: imagine if BTC is a global reserve currency/store and there only are 21 million then at $50k each BTC's total value is $1 trillion which at a global scale is a minor amount compared to eg total value of derivates ($544Tn) or stocks ($72Tn)
Scenarios for the next weeks:
B: bull break doesn't seem likely yet
A: ~$6100/6200 most likely heading to A2, A1 also possible
A1: Long term support (LTS) bounce @ ~$5900/5800
OR A2: trend line ~$6600
A2A: bull break bulls happy
OR A2B: Another triangle bounce or LTS
A1 bounces could also see trend line failure or a massive spring.
Bad news can see BTC failure below LTS. The only thing that can make BTC fail totally is a failure or systemic flaw of the underlying technology OR an altcoin that assumes BTC's role. The latter risk isn't insignificant, but at this time BTC is utterly dominant.
Bounce was much tighter this time, at very roughly the 0.786 of the previous move (if we disregard the dump of sept 19th). Expect the next lower high around $6630 if this pattern stays within its bounds. I do think we'll make at least another bounce but we're in the end game with this year's triangle formation and with BTC tightening the potential for mad moves and jittery traders intensifies; that's already obvious in some of the alts that will benefit most from a return to the bull market such as XLM (stellar), ETH and XRP. As for XRP: I think its centralized character, banking association and lack of function of XRP within the Ripple proposition is a profound liability of XRP and could affect its strength over the coming months.