Is the Bear Market Upon Us?

Hello Everyone,

Quick analysis for today. There has been a question in the air for the last 2-3 months. "Are we in a bear market?". Well there is not a simple yes or no answer for this and I would say it is a little too early to call. I am personally leaning more bearish as I am seeing rallies with bearish price action representing dead cat bounces. Not to mention the huge loss in momentum and exit pumps in random small cap alt coins by whales.

I have provided several pieces of analysis in the last few weeks but here is a more simple weekly chart.

As we can see, each time the market "tops" it is followed by a large relief rally that does not exceed the all time high. The biggest take away is the much lower volume or bearish price action as the price tries to climb back up. Each time this happened, the market saw the entry way into the bear market. Another note is the blue Moving Average which is the Hull Moving Average . This MA has been consistent in determining the start/end of the bull/bear market. Not to mention we are at a 20x from the March 2020 low.

I would also like to include a partial monthly analysis here. If you look at RSI, each bull market ended with RSI just above 90. The bear market followed. This bull market hit 90 right around the 60k area.

This does not mean there are not bullish swings in the bear market. There are 4-7 on average per year. I will be looking forward to trading these as well as DCAing in the bear market (if it is here to stay). I made some very good gains in this bull market. Things can change and we may still continue this bull cycle but at this point I think it's unlikely.

As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading!