BTCUSD Setting Up for Pre-Halving Rally to $8.4k+
Evaluating
BTCUSD
on the 1h, 1D and 1W TF's
Completely ignoring the debate about the relevance of the incoming BTC Halving and its potential impact on price action, here's the micro and macro picture for Bitcoin as we head into the last weeks of April.
At the time of this post - BTCUSD is ranging from $6.8k - $7.2k in attempts to recover from the Corona Virus Market dump that plummeted price from $8k to lows of $3.5k+ in March. The halving is around the corner, expected in May 2020, and regardless of the event being 'priced in' or not, it appears BTC will potentially be back in the $8k's when the event itself occurs.
As of now, this would be invalidated by a drop below $6.1k, but the confluence of bands across several TFs suggest strong support has been rebuilt in $6.2k-$6.4k, making the set $6.1k stop loss on this analysis more than unlikely to be used.
With price maintaining current $7.1k pressure, it would not be out of the question to see $7.3k by the start of the 3rd week of April (approx 72h from this posting). The resistance offered at $7.3k is minimum on the low TFs and It seems to be more than likely we shoot by it towards $7.6k shortly thereafter.
One note as we head into the halving - in the previous 2, the high of the trend (before short term consolidation) occurred at about 60% of the previous set ATH. Following this logic, BTCUSD would be around $11k for the May halving, which is entirely possible, if $8k and can be reached by the end of April 2020. That said, do not be surprised if the previous halving values were irrelevant, considering they occurred when
The world wasn't dealing with a pandemic
Wall Street wasn't as involved and futures were not traded
One arguemet that is very relevant would suggest that BTCUSD hit the expected local high for the halving, prematurely in June 2019, which then puts us at approx. $8.5k expected for the consolidation level thereafter....which is the main potential price being suggested by the technical for the actual event.
Overall, here's what seems most likely, depending on your given bias.
Ideal Bull Case - Look for $10k-$11k right before the event, with potential dumps down to $8k after the event
Less bullish case- Look for $8.5k for the event, with little change afterward as we continue. Failure to hold support however suggests dumps down to $6k afterward and a total bear trend setting in
slightly bearish case - Look for $6k around the event and then little to no change thereafter
Bears on Parade - Look for dumps down to lows from current $7.1k, with zero impact to reverse, from the halving event
BTCUSD
on the 1h, 1D and 1W TF's Completely ignoring the debate about the relevance of the incoming BTC Halving and its potential impact on price action, here's the micro and macro picture for Bitcoin as we head into the last weeks of April.
At the time of this post - BTCUSD is ranging from $6.8k - $7.2k in attempts to recover from the Corona Virus Market dump that plummeted price from $8k to lows of $3.5k+ in March. The halving is around the corner, expected in May 2020, and regardless of the event being 'priced in' or not, it appears BTC will potentially be back in the $8k's when the event itself occurs.
As of now, this would be invalidated by a drop below $6.1k, but the confluence of bands across several TFs suggest strong support has been rebuilt in $6.2k-$6.4k, making the set $6.1k stop loss on this analysis more than unlikely to be used.
- Initial analysis of the chart suggests bullish momentum to continue due to the RSI support we've reclaimed + potential BBand Squeeze building on the 1D Chart
With price maintaining current $7.1k pressure, it would not be out of the question to see $7.3k by the start of the 3rd week of April (approx 72h from this posting). The resistance offered at $7.3k is minimum on the low TFs and It seems to be more than likely we shoot by it towards $7.6k shortly thereafter.
- At this point, it would make sense for price to consolidate down to the soon-to-be reclaimed $7.3k range before continuing to $8k by end of April and into early May.
- Since you need to be prepared for all events, lets assume $7.3k fails to hold after touching $7.6k, look for $6.8k and then $6.2k as potential support zones to consolidate down to
One note as we head into the halving - in the previous 2, the high of the trend (before short term consolidation) occurred at about 60% of the previous set ATH. Following this logic, BTCUSD would be around $11k for the May halving, which is entirely possible, if $8k and can be reached by the end of April 2020. That said, do not be surprised if the previous halving values were irrelevant, considering they occurred when
The world wasn't dealing with a pandemic
Wall Street wasn't as involved and futures were not traded
One arguemet that is very relevant would suggest that BTCUSD hit the expected local high for the halving, prematurely in June 2019, which then puts us at approx. $8.5k expected for the consolidation level thereafter....which is the main potential price being suggested by the technical for the actual event.
Overall, here's what seems most likely, depending on your given bias.
Ideal Bull Case - Look for $10k-$11k right before the event, with potential dumps down to $8k after the event
Less bullish case- Look for $8.5k for the event, with little change afterward as we continue. Failure to hold support however suggests dumps down to $6k afterward and a total bear trend setting in
slightly bearish case - Look for $6k around the event and then little to no change thereafter
Bears on Parade - Look for dumps down to lows from current $7.1k, with zero impact to reverse, from the halving event
Trade active:
On track almost to the dollar.
Trade closed: target reached
Eric Thies
