2020 vs 2018
Similarities: Both confirmed their recovery and started a new uptrend when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line form the last Top. That roughly matched the 1D MA50
Differences: While the 1D RSI broke well below the 30.000 oversold level in both cases, in 2020 it achieved a price bottom for BTC , while in 2018, a price Lower Low was made for the bottom despite the fact that the RSI was rising.
That bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200 , while in 2020 the price dropped considerably below the 1W MA200.
Today
The correction since late March resembles so far that of 2018 in terms of the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 and in terms of the total drop percentage as so far it has completed a -47%, not far off the 2018 -52%. A -52% would be approximately around $23150, just over the 1W MA200, which in 2018 formed the bottom.
However it terms of RSI , it resembles more the 2020 correction, as the RSI is rising along with the price.
So whats the conclusion? The common parameter in those past corrections, is that the market confirmed a sustainable rise when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line, which is also roughly where the 1D MA50 was. Right now the 1D MA50 is at $38623 but dropping fast due to May's aggressive correction. Long-term traders and investors have much better chances buying once BTC breaks above this trend-line. Our thesis is that, we will most likely see sideways price action before the Lower Highs/ 1D MA50 break, meaning that we may see a 2 month consolidation.
Can this be a Bear Market Accumulation?
Similarities: Both confirmed their recovery and started a new uptrend when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line form the last Top. That roughly matched the 1D MA50
Differences: While the 1D RSI broke well below the 30.000 oversold level in both cases, in 2020 it achieved a price bottom for BTC , while in 2018, a price Lower Low was made for the bottom despite the fact that the RSI was rising.
That bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200 , while in 2020 the price dropped considerably below the 1W MA200.
Today
The correction since late March resembles so far that of 2018 in terms of the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 and in terms of the total drop percentage as so far it has completed a -47%, not far off the 2018 -52%. A -52% would be approximately around $23150, just over the 1W MA200, which in 2018 formed the bottom.
However it terms of RSI , it resembles more the 2020 correction, as the RSI is rising along with the price.
So whats the conclusion? The common parameter in those past corrections, is that the market confirmed a sustainable rise when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line, which is also roughly where the 1D MA50 was. Right now the 1D MA50 is at $38623 but dropping fast due to May's aggressive correction. Long-term traders and investors have much better chances buying once BTC breaks above this trend-line. Our thesis is that, we will most likely see sideways price action before the Lower Highs/ 1D MA50 break, meaning that we may see a 2 month consolidation.
Can this be a Bear Market Accumulation?