BTC has been hovering in the 6200-6800 range for the past week. Bears expect it to break support at 6100 and then to go down below 5900. It is unlikely to happen. After this period of consolidation, small bullish divergences are appearing. The clearest one can be visualised using the MACD histogram. Although it is a lagging indicator, it has a solide track record of indicating turning points in the BTC price evolution. Change the MACD parameters to MACD (18,36, 15) and you will appreciate what I mean (note: these parameters are derived from a backtest optimisation exercise, which is considered "curve fitting" so use with caution).
RSI is rising from the mid-40s and reaching the middle of its range. Stochastics recently bounced from the 80-level (overbought) but have since retraced; note how Stochastics typically re-test their boundaries before moving decisively in the opposite direction.
Looking at the Volume Profile for the past 3 months, the Point Of Control is at 6,900~7,000. Once BTC reaches this level, it will quickly progress to 7,200~7,500 which the next area of Volume Interest. Once it reaches that level, then maybe the market will turn around and restart its long term downtrend.
The market is deciding where it wants to go and my money is on the "up until 7,200" side. My approach is to go long 1/3 of my desired final exposure and keep laddered stop losses at the range, Stop and Reverse 1/3 at below 5,950. (this is not financial advice, do your own research).
Trade active:
As mid-August looms, BTC is attempting to go back to the 7,000 point of control. A clearer and more decisive path, up or down, will emerge once market participants can evaluate the decision and communications from the SEC regarding the ETF approval.
