Lithium_SG

Lithium_SG

Between now and August 10th, BTC standard deviation move is $880 either way, with a 68% probability, based on a 65% volatility factor (using the imperfect assumption that BTC are normally distributed). Since I highlighted the bullish divergence back on July 12, the MACD lines have moved into positive territory and the histogram positive portion is healthy. The...

Lithium_SG

Based on the current level of volatility (65.2%), there is a 68% probability that bitcoin will end up somewhere between 6526 and 8815 by August 10, 2018; this calculation is based on the assumption of a normal distribution for BTC prices and a volatility level of 65.25%, which I get from Bitmex's dataset (imperfect assumptions I know). All my TA based strategies...

Lithium_SG Updated 

BTC has been hovering in the 6200-6800 range for the past week. Bears expect it to break support at 6100 and then to go down below 5900. It is unlikely to happen. After this period of consolidation, small bullish divergences are appearing. The clearest one can be visualised using the MACD histogram. Although it is a lagging indicator, it has a solide track record...

Lithium_SG

BTC is stuck below 7,000. We have a short rally on the back of positive news on the US economy (ISM), Coinbase announcing a new custody product and the SEC announcing a change of rules regarding new ETFs; the SEC announcement is fuelling the rumours and the feeling that a bitcoin ETF will be approved shortly. Maybe that is the case, but adoption by institutional...

Lithium_SG

June 26 close (using UTC timezone) shows that MACD (12,26,9) is experiencing a bullish divergence; it is a small one and so I don't have a lot of conviction at this stage. Separately, I use MACD (19,38,13) which is optimised for the Jan14-Jan18 period; this modified MACD still flashes a "SELL" signal.

Lithium_SG Updated 

Bitcoin as a market is not efficient: on large exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken) you have a lot of retail players; on the smaller exchanges, volume numbers are inflated, often using trading bots; the futures marketplace of CME and CBOE have limited volumes and very large orders take place via OTC trades that aren't always reflected on time. FUD and FOMO drive the price...

Lithium_SG

Review the definition of the MACD bullish/bearish divergence signals, and you will realise that BTC is currently not experiencing a bullish divergence. BTCUSD