DrJLT

Bitcoin back to earth soon?

Short
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
It's widely known among Bitcoin users / hodlers / supporters / speculators that a big part of Bitcoin's appeal comes from the application of the poorly formulated "modern monetary theory", not only by central banks, but also by voters demanding free money.

This is IMHO a dangerous idea, even though I'm more of a Keynesian: Just because governments control the money supply and do not suffer from immediate restraints that individuals do does not mean money printing can carry on forever. I'm thinking about writing on this in an upcoming blog (see my profile for links).

Back to Bitcoin: I have argued before that Bitcoin cannot be the solution to this global problem. However, it can attract speculation and can even play a role in the financial markets.

Still, based on technical reasons, I'm of the view that this bull run is exhausted. This is evidenced by the smaller bull run by alt coins in recent weeks. I have three targets for Bitcoin's upcoming drop, with 16k as the intermediate target (see chart).

I think it'll likely fall under 10k towards the end of 2021, but that's too far into the future to be a meaningful discussion. The next bull run is likely to happen sooner rather than later, with 2023 be my guess.

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