BTCUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% BTC, 52% Cash.
*SUNDAY SCARIES WATCH. Cryptos are largely flat with some altcoins seeing buying pressure as we get halfway through the weekend. Someone has used a car bomb to explode the only supply line from Crimea to Russia and many presume it to be the Ukrainians, which reignites a whole new round of fears regarding the potential usage of chemical or nuclear warfare by Russia on Ukraine. Of course in this scenario, it would almost certainly result in NATO intervention and may finally be the event that gets the media to use the term World War 3. Because war is historically bullish for DXY, if rate hikes continue into 2023 and war escalates, you can almost assuredly bet that DXY will hit $120 like it did in the early 80's and 2000-02. And if DXY keeps going higher, "Risk-On" assets like Growth Stocks and Cryptos will likely keep going lower. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.*
Price is currently testing $19417 support for the second consecutive session as it gets closer to retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$20200 as resistance. Volume is Low (low) and currently on track to favor sellers for a fourth consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18.3k, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 46.5 as it approaches a retest of the descending trendline from January 2021 as support at 42.41 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 55.55 support with no signs of trough formation, the next support after that is at 29.70. MACD remains bullish and continues to trend sideways for the third consecutive session at -70, it's still technically testing -232.42 minor support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 with no signs of trough formation as Price is falling, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$20k as resistance before potentially retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$20200 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely continue to trend sideways until it reaches the descending trendline where it will either break out of the almost one year long descending trend or be rejected and fall to retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at $15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two more consecutive closes above) $19417.
*SUNDAY SCARIES WATCH. Cryptos are largely flat with some altcoins seeing buying pressure as we get halfway through the weekend. Someone has used a car bomb to explode the only supply line from Crimea to Russia and many presume it to be the Ukrainians, which reignites a whole new round of fears regarding the potential usage of chemical or nuclear warfare by Russia on Ukraine. Of course in this scenario, it would almost certainly result in NATO intervention and may finally be the event that gets the media to use the term World War 3. Because war is historically bullish for DXY, if rate hikes continue into 2023 and war escalates, you can almost assuredly bet that DXY will hit $120 like it did in the early 80's and 2000-02. And if DXY keeps going higher, "Risk-On" assets like Growth Stocks and Cryptos will likely keep going lower. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.*
Price is currently testing $19417 support for the second consecutive session as it gets closer to retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$20200 as resistance. Volume is Low (low) and currently on track to favor sellers for a fourth consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18.3k, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 46.5 as it approaches a retest of the descending trendline from January 2021 as support at 42.41 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 55.55 support with no signs of trough formation, the next support after that is at 29.70. MACD remains bullish and continues to trend sideways for the third consecutive session at -70, it's still technically testing -232.42 minor support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 with no signs of trough formation as Price is falling, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$20k as resistance before potentially retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$20200 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely continue to trend sideways until it reaches the descending trendline where it will either break out of the almost one year long descending trend or be rejected and fall to retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at $15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two more consecutive closes above) $19417.