Preface: I've never asked this before, but I feel very strongly about people seeing this chart, so I will ask this one time- please be sure to like and share this chart if it is helpful to you. I really think this will help people gain a perspective of the market, so that they can be better prepared for anything that comes their way. I would really like for this chart to get air time, so to speak.
Hi all, I've decided to take a look at BTC in a way that it seems few want to do- from a lifetime perspective. So many people let their emotions catch up to them, and they end up losing sight of the bigger picture. It's disheartening to see that with every couple hundred dollar drop we see, the cryptosphere goes into a state of panic. Conversely, it's disheartening to see everyone going all in when we see a small rally.
Despite what many think, BTC isn't as random as generally perceived. I've took it upon myself to chart out a detailed synopsis of the general timeline of BTC here. I am personally not interested in observing any fundamentals that may have caused the prices to move as they have, I'm merely looking to let the charts tell the story.
It is common knowledge that a proper retrace will sit somewhere around the .618-.786 region. I've charted points of interest over the life of BTC, denoting in red where an observed downtrend is, and in green, an uptrend. You might notice that FOUR of the five downtrends noted here are in the 70%-80% range. Did you know that in this current bear cycle, we've only retraced around 70%?
Yes, we are currently observing a seemingly longer bear trend than usual, but the fact is that this is perfectly normal, and we have further downside yet. How you want to play this out is entirely up to you, truthfully. We COULD very well see a bottom around 5600, or we could go as low as 3800, which is what my money is on, personally. No, I am not giving you all a definitive bottom, because I don't know what it is. I'm merely using historical analysis to prepare for this scenario. It's up to you to decide your risk management strategies, because everything works differently for people. If you do want help with that, however, please PM me, and I'd be happy to try and help.
Anyhow, using a fib time zone, I estimate our reversal up will be somewhere roughly in August, give or take a couple months. That would give the market time to bounce up over the next few weeks, then observe its final leg down. This could of course go in an entirely different direction, but we shall ultimately see. Let's take it one step at a time and see what happens these coming months.
If this gets enough love, I'll happily continue to work on this and update it.
Please trade smartly, trade safely, and remember to relax.
If you have any questions or need any help with anything, do not hesitate to PM me, I would love to help.
-Nick
Hi all, I've decided to take a look at BTC in a way that it seems few want to do- from a lifetime perspective. So many people let their emotions catch up to them, and they end up losing sight of the bigger picture. It's disheartening to see that with every couple hundred dollar drop we see, the cryptosphere goes into a state of panic. Conversely, it's disheartening to see everyone going all in when we see a small rally.
Despite what many think, BTC isn't as random as generally perceived. I've took it upon myself to chart out a detailed synopsis of the general timeline of BTC here. I am personally not interested in observing any fundamentals that may have caused the prices to move as they have, I'm merely looking to let the charts tell the story.
It is common knowledge that a proper retrace will sit somewhere around the .618-.786 region. I've charted points of interest over the life of BTC, denoting in red where an observed downtrend is, and in green, an uptrend. You might notice that FOUR of the five downtrends noted here are in the 70%-80% range. Did you know that in this current bear cycle, we've only retraced around 70%?
Yes, we are currently observing a seemingly longer bear trend than usual, but the fact is that this is perfectly normal, and we have further downside yet. How you want to play this out is entirely up to you, truthfully. We COULD very well see a bottom around 5600, or we could go as low as 3800, which is what my money is on, personally. No, I am not giving you all a definitive bottom, because I don't know what it is. I'm merely using historical analysis to prepare for this scenario. It's up to you to decide your risk management strategies, because everything works differently for people. If you do want help with that, however, please PM me, and I'd be happy to try and help.
Anyhow, using a fib time zone, I estimate our reversal up will be somewhere roughly in August, give or take a couple months. That would give the market time to bounce up over the next few weeks, then observe its final leg down. This could of course go in an entirely different direction, but we shall ultimately see. Let's take it one step at a time and see what happens these coming months.
If this gets enough love, I'll happily continue to work on this and update it.
Please trade smartly, trade safely, and remember to relax.
If you have any questions or need any help with anything, do not hesitate to PM me, I would love to help.
-Nick
Comment:
I forgot something integral to the price drop- CME futures won't continue to persist if it goes below 5500 USD I believe? Don't hold me to that, but then we make see our bottom closer to 5500 then.
Comment:
The RSI excites me oh so much. I don't want to be a sensationalist here, but I think the coming months are gonna be beautiful.
The RSI excites me oh so much. I don't want to be a sensationalist here, but I think the coming months are gonna be beautiful.