stewdamus

Something to Watch!

stewdamus Updated   
INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Traders,

Per usual, I am a little ahead of the crowd here. But I feel it's better to have all perspectives in mind and to be prepared for multiple scenarios than to have never seen it coming. With that being said, here's is a potential future pattern on the BTC daily that may be developing and is something we should all be watching carefully because if it plays out, Bitcoin will go to 31,600 (Yes, I am almost that confident).

Here's what we have to watch:

First of all, watch where our daily candle closes. It appears to be forming a bearish shooting star. Where the price closes today will be critical and is our first big clue as to what might occur next.

But also, if we fail to break above that RED descending TL, more selling may still ensue.

Thirdly, if we sell back down to our neckline, it could spell trouble as a small H&S pattern will have completed. The probability of the pattern playing out and further selling to continue will now be around 85 percent.

But, fourthly, we will have to break that neckline (PURPLE descending TL). If that neckline is broken and price confirms with another candle open and close below it, we are most likely going back down to that 31,600 price level I have referenced so many time in past posts.

Again, this post is very premature, but it is something that I think we need to keep on our radar. As you can see, quite a few indicators must trigger prior to this type of selling occurring but with each occurrence we can grow more confident in Bitcoin's future movement. Should any of the above fail, we would then have to re-evaluate the chart as it may invalidate the pattern or greatly decrease the likelihood of a 31,600 retest.

Stay tuned here and I'll keep you all up to date on this developing pattern.
Trade closed manually:
Traders, this pattern looks to be close to being invalidated.

All indicators are showing that Bitcoin may want to retest that 48k resistance level again. The retest comes quicker than I anticipated by I am not going to fight price action here. VRVP and FRVP support strong accumulation at or near the neckline of that inverse H&S pattern I have drawn. Neckline has been broken to the upside where there is not a lot of selling pressure. Playing a BTC long here to 48k with a SL just below the point of control (red line) on the VRVP.


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