This is a rehash of a chart I posted on April 4th. This time I changed the timeline from 1 day to 1 hour. You can see a bit more detail this way. The chart is very simple. All I'm looking at here is how the price action is moving within this descending wedge and analyzing how strong prior supports have been and their association with fib retracement levels. As you can see, we did briefly breach the upper boundary of the wedge. But I don't think this is enough to truly reverse the trend. It is a good sign, however. Bulls are becoming exhausted. Support at 6500 is very strong. And we are just a few days away from seeing if this wedge is valid.
What we truly can't guess is whether the price will break upwards, or downwards once the wedge is complete. Seeing as to how the entire market (even BTC bulls and shills) are talking about selling, I'd say that there is a decent chance of a trend reversal. And then a very long Cup and Handle may begin to form. We'll see.
We are also seeing that the alt market is getting sick of being pushed around by the price of BTC. So, it's time for BTC to either be abandoned entirely so the superior tokens in the marketplace can thrive, or it's time for BTC to adapt and the price to at least stabilize and trade sideways / improve. Otherwise a day will come when it's too late and every other coin abandons BTC as their primary trading pair in favor of Tether or fiat. This would seal BTC's fate as the inferior token (which it is) and the market would move along without it. But this solution (which appears to be inevitable) will be a very long and drawn out process. It would be much simpler if we continued to use BTC as an intermediary token for the time being. In order for that to happen, it needs to break to the upside.
If it's incapable of breaking upward, I'd go full Bear Mode on it. The lower BTC gets the more likely it is that it will not be able to recover. And, the more likely it is that Tether and fiat will just fill BTC's role and we can finally be free of it's toxic influence over the markets. People are noticing, and getting very tired of BTC's market dominance. More people are coming to adopt my view of BTC (as an inconvenient requirement to acquire superior coins). If BTC falls below 4,500, I won't be trading it anymore and I won't buy back into it. Instead I would have to keep my money in fiat and wait for the coins I actually want to invest in to become available for purchase using fiat. This could take years.
Hopefully the faster method makes us all a bit of money. Good luck out there.
Also, remember to Keep it Simple (stupid). :-p
What we truly can't guess is whether the price will break upwards, or downwards once the wedge is complete. Seeing as to how the entire market (even BTC bulls and shills) are talking about selling, I'd say that there is a decent chance of a trend reversal. And then a very long Cup and Handle may begin to form. We'll see.
We are also seeing that the alt market is getting sick of being pushed around by the price of BTC. So, it's time for BTC to either be abandoned entirely so the superior tokens in the marketplace can thrive, or it's time for BTC to adapt and the price to at least stabilize and trade sideways / improve. Otherwise a day will come when it's too late and every other coin abandons BTC as their primary trading pair in favor of Tether or fiat. This would seal BTC's fate as the inferior token (which it is) and the market would move along without it. But this solution (which appears to be inevitable) will be a very long and drawn out process. It would be much simpler if we continued to use BTC as an intermediary token for the time being. In order for that to happen, it needs to break to the upside.
If it's incapable of breaking upward, I'd go full Bear Mode on it. The lower BTC gets the more likely it is that it will not be able to recover. And, the more likely it is that Tether and fiat will just fill BTC's role and we can finally be free of it's toxic influence over the markets. People are noticing, and getting very tired of BTC's market dominance. More people are coming to adopt my view of BTC (as an inconvenient requirement to acquire superior coins). If BTC falls below 4,500, I won't be trading it anymore and I won't buy back into it. Instead I would have to keep my money in fiat and wait for the coins I actually want to invest in to become available for purchase using fiat. This could take years.
Hopefully the faster method makes us all a bit of money. Good luck out there.
Also, remember to Keep it Simple (stupid). :-p
Comment:
Turns out I was right about the Triangle, but wrong about the time-frame. I never imagined it would take 11 months to form. But there it is. Only two points are needed to form the descending trendline but we saw it bounce off of 6k multiple times throughout 2018. When volume began to compress it was a clue. And if you had decided to use the green wick that formed on the 15th of October to recognize this pattern, you could have saved yourself from some serious losses. If you were a hodler, anyway.