BTC/USD doesn't just rhyme, it has a rhythm: 2021 preview
Back in May, I predicted BTC at $30k by NYE '20, due to the massive Inverse H&S we had been building since Oct '19. To my great shame, we didn't break $30k until the 2nd Jan, but I'll still venture another educated guess for the year ahead.
We already reached the target for the Inverse H&S and had a quick correction as the market reacted strongly.
There are now a few opposing forces at play
1) Fear of buying after rising 835% in 9 months
2) Hopes for much higher highs by EOY
3) Institutions are patiently hoarding and hodling
This will cause us to go sideways for a while, between $22.5k and $40k at the extreme ends of the spectrum, until summer '21. In this period there will be some fear, uncertainty and doubt, but the power of the Bitcoin blockchain cannot be undone.
By end of summer '21 we will therefore break out again and the "real" bull run will begin, taking us well above $200k by summer '22 at the latest. In some alternative scenarios, we could go as high as $450k, but that's a bit optimistic IMHO.
My exact targets are $120k by NYE '21 and $260k by summer '22. In a more bullish scenario (see below), it's $260k by NYE.
A few problems to be aware of with this analysis:
What do you think? Leave a comment for trading luck!
My previous BTC analysis:
This is not investment advice, it's just for fun!
We already reached the target for the Inverse H&S and had a quick correction as the market reacted strongly.
There are now a few opposing forces at play
1) Fear of buying after rising 835% in 9 months
2) Hopes for much higher highs by EOY
3) Institutions are patiently hoarding and hodling
This will cause us to go sideways for a while, between $22.5k and $40k at the extreme ends of the spectrum, until summer '21. In this period there will be some fear, uncertainty and doubt, but the power of the Bitcoin blockchain cannot be undone.
By end of summer '21 we will therefore break out again and the "real" bull run will begin, taking us well above $200k by summer '22 at the latest. In some alternative scenarios, we could go as high as $450k, but that's a bit optimistic IMHO.
My exact targets are $120k by NYE '21 and $260k by summer '22. In a more bullish scenario (see below), it's $260k by NYE.
A few problems to be aware of with this analysis:
- We broke ATH much earlier in this cycle, may be more bullish than expected (causing a shorter timeframe, higher target)
- We went so high so fast there are big gaps in the price action, may cause temporary surprise crash (causing longer timeframe, lower target)
What do you think? Leave a comment for trading luck!
My previous BTC analysis:
This is not investment advice, it's just for fun!
Comment:
BTC formed a sort of poor man's inverse H&S, with target of about 41.800, which I believe will be a local top until summer.
Comment:
So far, spot on! I now believe we will continue "sideways" (in crypto terms) until the end of spring:
Comment:
We can now update our targets for NYE to $210k.
Comment:
Nothing to add, everything is going according to plan, except I think we're back to the original NYE target now.
