Accumulation Wyckoff, the bottom may be near BTC holders =]

Before judging keep in mind this potential wyckoff may or may not play out, the bases are set for it but any additional fud news could destroy the set up
right now i am neutral to bullish based on this potential wyckoff, if any changes appear that does not fit this idea consider it as never posted ;)


keep in mind the wave calculations are not correct, its just to lay out where the potential waves may come


enjoy!

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Wave 1 is now finished, we should see a little draw back in its second wave to prepare for the 3th wave going to the 40k zone, this shart may or may not be accurate with the tops and bottoms but should follow the general direction

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as we watch the market unfold i wanted to add that we have a inversed shs pattern aswell, supporting the idea we head up to the 40/42k range even though it plays out on a lower timeframe it gives support to this broader idea of a accumulation wyckoff

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That being said we have to keep in mind that the broader down trend is still in tact (shown as a red line in the screenshot above) it should have some resistance and its possible we may fail to break out on its first attempt, on the wyckoff chart you can see this as your wave 2 (move down) and on its second attempt (wave 3) it should break out upwards giving space for the road to 40/42k zone

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A closer look on wave 1 goin into wave 2

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btc strength is increasing on this move up, shown as volumes increasing during an up move, wave 2 to 3 may become not so much of a drop but pearhaps pulling out flags / sideways movement before moving up again, also to note is that the first wave looks abit extended to me i previously mentioned that it would perhaps fail to break the red line first move a little back as your seccond wave then break the red resistance, but instead bitcoin decided to break it first and likely going to retest its new support

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after a 28% rise on btc and ignoring a propper corrective wave its now testing the 200ma on the hourly chart, this may result for it to be a temporary top for the coming day as it is due to make a corrective move

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last update for me tonight, now that btc pulled out a red candle and have overbought indicators on the hrly i would assume we will have a healthy correction wave back to around 37k (0.618 fib) this will reset indicators and protentialy have the drive to push a higher high into the 40k zone

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just a side note, the head and shoulders pattern has finished with his head length pushed up from its break out

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good morning, it seems this wave down went a little deepere then expected so rather then the 0.618 fibb retracement its more looking like its taking the 0.5 fibb position, alligned with more support zones in the recent past as your bounce area,
this move down was clearly needed after an amazing 28% rise of btc , from the green zone out i expect the wave to end and continues its way up to retest the 200ma on the hrly, if succesfull we could see a push into the 42k zone, as it basicly already hit the 40k peak erlier yesterday, on the other side becarefull trading this idea, its still in progress and the target of 41/41k is still in reach but might not have the power to push trough

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buy area target has been reached, now that we have had a healthy pull back from its immense 28% move up it has now space to make a higher high, lets see where this wave will brings us =]

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not sure about tha validation of this potential inverted shs as i personly dont like the left shoulder but as you can see this will put potential buyers in position if it is valid and validated by an outbreak, my sugestion is not to focus to much on that yet untill we get closer to that zone of 40k

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right now we see our targets between 40 to 42k being reached even though the timeframe of this pattern may be a little off it is stil very well at play here, as mentioned at the start of this post i already mentioned that the wave count and moves will be incorect , what to do next?, there are 2 options from here, it could wiggle abit around this zone consolidate and move higher and making this wyckoff idea invalid if it breaks the to resistances shown as white lines, or option 2 is that we follow the path down as shown in yellow (timeframe and actual price may variate) its an exiting moment for btc becuase it reall have the potential here to push to 45k where the real strong resistance sits at only time will tell from here =]

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aditionaly i want to talk abit about a potential shs that is at play here if these levels are getting broken we could very well see 50k, we cant rule out the bullish scenario here, im looking to enter back a position once it broken down the 2 white lines, resistance at 41.3k and 42.4k i personaly think it pretty unlikely to happen but have to mention this too

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lets have a closer look what is happening right now with btc and what the most probable scenario could or rather should be according this wyckoff accumulation idea, in yellow lines you see a rising wedge forming and its 5 waves once finished, reaching our second target accordingly on the wyckoff theory, keep in mind that there is room for errors but this should be the most likely scenaro at this moment, on the bullish side this inverted shs is still a possibility although i personaly think its unlikely to happen

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right now btc is touching its support on the rising wedge, bitcoin should hold this area for now to move 1 final leg up to complete the up trend from the past days according to this wyckof idea , from there we should be going down again and entering phase C, assuming phase B will finish it accordingly we can expect the drop to be happening on a slower state then past drops as sell presure is les intense in comparison to the previous bottoms, time wise its getting on track again

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in 5 minutes hrly candle closes, right now this is a nice bullish candle setting up the last wave up perfecly

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good morning everyone, BTC seems week the past 24 hrs, and did not mannage to stick to its channel wich leads me to believe that a retest of the 40/42k channel is becoming less likely, it did touch the 40k zone erlier this week therefor the pattern is still a valid, important to note coming day or 2 if it continues to follow its path down that it keep producing lower highs and lower lows, if it does produce a higher high this may very well be a retest again on the 40 to 42k zone

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sometimes its rly hard to scale this wyckoff accumulation idea to its fitting length when you dont rly have any reference points at the start of this accumulation, so i wanna throw out a more scaled realistic version of this idea (stretched out) and more likely to follow this timeframe

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the chart above and its pattern are still thesame but key factors here change as in this more stretched version it means its still in its channel, 41k/42k is still a possibility, lets see how this will play out =]

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i made a new idea as a follow up on this idea but more realisticly scaled i will no longer be posting on this chart but will continue on my next idea

link:

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click on the image above here

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the drop went so quick already that the timeframe is fittin well again lol :p

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further updates in pt2 see profile ;)