This chart that overlays an analysis (from wizsec) of how much hot/cold BTC Mt. Gox had in the years leading up to their closure, while they were in the process of having coins stolen. It shows that there was definitely an overlap in potential Mt. Gox theft activity, bot activity, and the mega bubble.
i.imgur.com/41JsffR.png
At the bottom of the same chart, you can also compare with /u/_supert_'s price prediction model which is based on tx growth. Notice the model has a major divergence during the period where the Gox thieves would be unloading 100s of thousands of coins, but then it settles back into it's original growth slope.
Conclusion: The mega bubble was driven by fraudulent/inorganic activity and we should not expect a repeat. However, fundamentals are strong and adoption continues to grow. It may be wise to take a multi-year outlook.
I believe we're still low on the S-curve of technology adoption, and thus there's no reason to believe that we will cease exponential growth yet. See "Speculative Adoption Theory" for a great read.
Near term, we could go as low as 1600 while remaining bullish. Long term, we should see $50k or even $100k coins by the end of 2020.
i.imgur.com/41JsffR.png
At the bottom of the same chart, you can also compare with /u/_supert_'s price prediction model which is based on tx growth. Notice the model has a major divergence during the period where the Gox thieves would be unloading 100s of thousands of coins, but then it settles back into it's original growth slope.
Conclusion: The mega bubble was driven by fraudulent/inorganic activity and we should not expect a repeat. However, fundamentals are strong and adoption continues to grow. It may be wise to take a multi-year outlook.
I believe we're still low on the S-curve of technology adoption, and thus there's no reason to believe that we will cease exponential growth yet. See "Speculative Adoption Theory" for a great read.
Near term, we could go as low as 1600 while remaining bullish. Long term, we should see $50k or even $100k coins by the end of 2020.