I see a resume of the uptrend, but not in the short term. I still think we will have "the" major capitulation event before we resume the Bullrun.
BTC swing-failure-pattern the May 19 candle and didn't move towards higher levels after that. Instead, it is still pulling back - evidence that sellers are still in control.
Based on historical data, I still believe shorts will be definitely punished with a mega squeeze to mid-upper 40k. If buyers take over at that moment, then the uptrend will resume, and later sellers will be punished. Otherwise, more aggressive sellers might step in. In this case, we will have 9-12 months of correction.
Trend and momentum: We are consolidating above 30k but losing momentum. RSI and MACD are rising, which for me is not a bullish div but a bearish reset - In fact, RSI just got rejected from the bullish control zone (50) on Jun 29. BTC is failing to turn Daily EMAS from resistance into support. 200 got rejected - 34 got rejected, and it seems that 21 might offer the subsequent rejection.
Market Structure: As for my analysis from yesterday, the quarterly chart looks like it is prepared for a 3-4 candle correction.
Volume: every time price is rising, volume is decreasing; when price decreases, volume increases. Perfect Rejection at the Point of Control. So it seems that sellers are using every opportunity they have.
Fundamentals/Sentiment: I understand little about fundamentals, but it seems that the Difficulty Adjustment will happen tomorrow. The hash rate will drop back to mid-2020 levels (14.43Th/s is expected) - GBTC premium still at a discount - Soros might want to short BTC -> No bullish news having an impact on the price, but a small tweeter FUD/Old news causing considerable damage.
I want to see that big red daily candle with a wick all the way to the mid-'20s, finishing a C wave. Fear and Greed Index at historical lows; disbelief everywhere to buy the next dip.
BTC swing-failure-pattern the May 19 candle and didn't move towards higher levels after that. Instead, it is still pulling back - evidence that sellers are still in control.
Based on historical data, I still believe shorts will be definitely punished with a mega squeeze to mid-upper 40k. If buyers take over at that moment, then the uptrend will resume, and later sellers will be punished. Otherwise, more aggressive sellers might step in. In this case, we will have 9-12 months of correction.
Trend and momentum: We are consolidating above 30k but losing momentum. RSI and MACD are rising, which for me is not a bullish div but a bearish reset - In fact, RSI just got rejected from the bullish control zone (50) on Jun 29. BTC is failing to turn Daily EMAS from resistance into support. 200 got rejected - 34 got rejected, and it seems that 21 might offer the subsequent rejection.
Market Structure: As for my analysis from yesterday, the quarterly chart looks like it is prepared for a 3-4 candle correction.
Volume: every time price is rising, volume is decreasing; when price decreases, volume increases. Perfect Rejection at the Point of Control. So it seems that sellers are using every opportunity they have.
Fundamentals/Sentiment: I understand little about fundamentals, but it seems that the Difficulty Adjustment will happen tomorrow. The hash rate will drop back to mid-2020 levels (14.43Th/s is expected) - GBTC premium still at a discount - Soros might want to short BTC -> No bullish news having an impact on the price, but a small tweeter FUD/Old news causing considerable damage.
I want to see that big red daily candle with a wick all the way to the mid-'20s, finishing a C wave. Fear and Greed Index at historical lows; disbelief everywhere to buy the next dip.
