As we delve into a new calendar year, i thought it was time to post some of my own thoughts on whats ahead.
The bulls are back, three figure targets have entered chat and leverage is abound. However, i fear this is nothing more than a 'Suckers Rally' as it is known.
What is a Suckers Rally you may ask? Well i asked Chat GPT and it said: " An increase in the value of a financial market or individual security, despite the lack of an improved outlook"... which summed it up pretty well i thought.
Sentiment is a funny thing... you can feel positive when surrounded by positivity and negative when everyone is down in the dumps. In fact, you will hear it a lot in the media that 'everything is fine, the market will bounce back because... it always does.. right?' Well of course they WILL say that, theres a lot of vested interest in making things go up up up!
But for me, i see nothing but hand grenades around every corner. Theres still an active war going on, inflation has gone down but can easily go back up, US debt is spiralling, China lurches from one crisis to another, Credit Suisse is acting like a degenerate and who trusts a crypto exchange anymore? The list of triggers that could cause some serious bear harm is endless and my bullish cases are well... much smaller in comparison.
So in numbers, my best guess is:
Q1-Q2: Suckers Rally - Anything from 28k-42k. (Bitcoin loves the extremes, so could poke a lot further than imagined in this scenario)
Q2-Q3: Return to Reality / last leg - Best Case: 13k, Worst case: 8k, Complete meltdown case: Under 3k.
Q4: Consolidation or Santa Rally relief heading into Christmas.
Hopefully i am pitifully wrong :)
The bulls are back, three figure targets have entered chat and leverage is abound. However, i fear this is nothing more than a 'Suckers Rally' as it is known.
What is a Suckers Rally you may ask? Well i asked Chat GPT and it said: " An increase in the value of a financial market or individual security, despite the lack of an improved outlook"... which summed it up pretty well i thought.
Sentiment is a funny thing... you can feel positive when surrounded by positivity and negative when everyone is down in the dumps. In fact, you will hear it a lot in the media that 'everything is fine, the market will bounce back because... it always does.. right?' Well of course they WILL say that, theres a lot of vested interest in making things go up up up!
But for me, i see nothing but hand grenades around every corner. Theres still an active war going on, inflation has gone down but can easily go back up, US debt is spiralling, China lurches from one crisis to another, Credit Suisse is acting like a degenerate and who trusts a crypto exchange anymore? The list of triggers that could cause some serious bear harm is endless and my bullish cases are well... much smaller in comparison.
So in numbers, my best guess is:
Q1-Q2: Suckers Rally - Anything from 28k-42k. (Bitcoin loves the extremes, so could poke a lot further than imagined in this scenario)
Q2-Q3: Return to Reality / last leg - Best Case: 13k, Worst case: 8k, Complete meltdown case: Under 3k.
Q4: Consolidation or Santa Rally relief heading into Christmas.
Hopefully i am pitifully wrong :)