If we retain our current descending channel then that answer is yes! The good news is that if it does maintain course, there is absolute hard support at $7800. We should be a little cautious and observant if we bounce off of $8200/$8300 support as it could lead us to a nasty head and shoulders that could break the 5+ year ascending trendline in the not too distant future if so. I feel like this is fairly improbable as I believe strongly in crypto maintaining the current long-term bull trend line.
Once we broke the ascending channel we came back up and confirmed it as resistance, this was a strong bear signal. I really thought BTC was going to run a wider, slower descending channel as it had started just as it was breaking out of the previous ascending channel. This sell off has really been epic and with force that could help it penetrate the long-term ascending trend line but if we do, I feel it will quickly recover to the trend line.
As I have been mentioning since probably Oct last year, look at any touch of this 5 year trendline as a huge buy opportunity, possibly the last time its this cheap every time it touches that line because that’s what it has represented for the last 5 almost 6 years. It is important to recognize the significance of this trend line, if we break it and convert it to resistance. If we ever turn this long term ascending trendline into resistance, I will be heavy short on crypto as the correction would likely be really drastic. I do not see any reason to believe we would break this trend line in any meaningful way.
Another observation I have made is that the global order books have been fairly stable. Of the major exchanges which we track, the global market liquidity was at about $1Billion (Not including derivatives) for crypto with BTC representing about 10% of that market depth with 100M in order books. At the beginning of this crash, the global order books fell down around $750M USD and they have been holding up around $750M and BTC sitting at around $80M. One thing a little concerning is that if you chart the books, it looks like we have established resistance at just under $790M. The books definitely maintain trends as well, in fact, the global books signaled a break in the trend before price did (Feb 15th) and often signal bottoms and tops as they tend to recover before price. Come play with market depth with 6 different depths of market, TV charts, special depth metrics and more @ vcdepth.io/
I am crypto long and 2020 feels like its going to be a good year. This is not investment advice, I am merely sharing my research. I recommend you do your own research, always.