Hello Folks,
it's been 2,5 years since I predicted in May 2020 that Bitcoin will reach 70-150K when the price of Bitcoin was below 10K.
I now believe that Bitcoin Circle 4 has started.
Let me explain why!
I did this using historic data of Bitcoin and it's halving dates of its 4 cycles. Bitcoin halvings used to have an extreme influence on the price as it made it harder for miners to acquire BTC rewards for mining which they subsequently released on the market, causing the price to drop when BTC supply was relatively thin. Now with most of BTC's maximum supply already circulating, miners releasing their BTC rewards into the market is just like a drop in the ocean. That means, that halvings are mostly psychological events for the BTC price which fundamentally don't influence Bitcoin much other than dropping its hashrate for a short amount of time and making the business of miners less profitable, causing many of them to stop operations and increasing market share for the more established miners.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin halvings do have a psychological effect on the market that is sticking: A couple weeks after every halving BTC started its halving run, catapulting the BTC price to new highs in the timespan of roughly a year before collapsing 80-90% again to start a new cycle.
Due to trades trading accordingly and the severe psychological effects of these swings I excpect those 4 year cycles to continue.
For comparison, here is how the halving runs (HR) and their aftermath of every cycle looked like:
HR Cycle 1
HR Cycle 2
HR Cycle 3
At the end of Cycle 3 I overlayed the performances of Cycle 1 - Cycle 2 (purple) and Cycle 2 - Cycle 3 (blue) to the top of our HR circle top 3 (green).
HR 1 top -> low occured after 411 days from top.
HR 2 top -> low occured after 363 days from top.
Our current top (9th of November 2022) -> low occured 364 days from top, pretty much matching HR2 top and also its timeframe from BTC halving date to top (HR2 was 556 days, HR3 was 548 days).
That HR3 low was slightly broken 1,5 weeks later on the 21st of November but can be considered a soft double bottom.
According to the paths of Cycle 1-2 and Cycle 2-3 we should be heading to 30-50K in the next 6-12 months before retracing to 20-30K. After that, it will be the run-up to the halving run.
The date of the next Bitcoin halving is still unknown. At the time of the making of this chart it was scheduled to be May 2 2024, right now it's scheduled to be on March 17 2024 due to hash rate increases. As I expect some miners to stop operations till then, the date might move back a couple weeks or months again.
In this chart I still use May 2 2024. as we get close to the halving date I will adjust my chart accordingly and publish an update.
Using history data and calculating possibilites I came up with a path for the next halving run:
I estimate for Bitcoin to top out around 120K. However, as we can't predict the future, the real number might rather be between 80K-170K.
Disclaimer: As always, nothing is guaranteed. Bitcoin might change its behavior completely somewhen. This is a calculation on how things went in the past - past performances can never guarantee future performances.
it's been 2,5 years since I predicted in May 2020 that Bitcoin will reach 70-150K when the price of Bitcoin was below 10K.
I now believe that Bitcoin Circle 4 has started.
Let me explain why!
I did this using historic data of Bitcoin and it's halving dates of its 4 cycles. Bitcoin halvings used to have an extreme influence on the price as it made it harder for miners to acquire BTC rewards for mining which they subsequently released on the market, causing the price to drop when BTC supply was relatively thin. Now with most of BTC's maximum supply already circulating, miners releasing their BTC rewards into the market is just like a drop in the ocean. That means, that halvings are mostly psychological events for the BTC price which fundamentally don't influence Bitcoin much other than dropping its hashrate for a short amount of time and making the business of miners less profitable, causing many of them to stop operations and increasing market share for the more established miners.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin halvings do have a psychological effect on the market that is sticking: A couple weeks after every halving BTC started its halving run, catapulting the BTC price to new highs in the timespan of roughly a year before collapsing 80-90% again to start a new cycle.
Due to trades trading accordingly and the severe psychological effects of these swings I excpect those 4 year cycles to continue.
For comparison, here is how the halving runs (HR) and their aftermath of every cycle looked like:
HR Cycle 1
HR Cycle 2
HR Cycle 3
At the end of Cycle 3 I overlayed the performances of Cycle 1 - Cycle 2 (purple) and Cycle 2 - Cycle 3 (blue) to the top of our HR circle top 3 (green).
HR 1 top -> low occured after 411 days from top.
HR 2 top -> low occured after 363 days from top.
Our current top (9th of November 2022) -> low occured 364 days from top, pretty much matching HR2 top and also its timeframe from BTC halving date to top (HR2 was 556 days, HR3 was 548 days).
That HR3 low was slightly broken 1,5 weeks later on the 21st of November but can be considered a soft double bottom.
According to the paths of Cycle 1-2 and Cycle 2-3 we should be heading to 30-50K in the next 6-12 months before retracing to 20-30K. After that, it will be the run-up to the halving run.
The date of the next Bitcoin halving is still unknown. At the time of the making of this chart it was scheduled to be May 2 2024, right now it's scheduled to be on March 17 2024 due to hash rate increases. As I expect some miners to stop operations till then, the date might move back a couple weeks or months again.
In this chart I still use May 2 2024. as we get close to the halving date I will adjust my chart accordingly and publish an update.
Using history data and calculating possibilites I came up with a path for the next halving run:
I estimate for Bitcoin to top out around 120K. However, as we can't predict the future, the real number might rather be between 80K-170K.
Disclaimer: As always, nothing is guaranteed. Bitcoin might change its behavior completely somewhen. This is a calculation on how things went in the past - past performances can never guarantee future performances.
