BITCOIN About to break the 3-week Triangle! How to trade it?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a (dashed) Triangle pattern since the March 14 High, supported twice by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The price is testing today the top of that pattern and going back to November 2022 at the bottom of the Bear Cycle when the Fibonacci Channel Up begun, we can see that a similar pattern emerged two more times.

The first (January - March 2023), the Triangle broke downwards, hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and then rose aggressively towards the 1.786 Fib extension. The second Triangle (December 2023 - January 2024) broke to the upside but then got rejected at the top of the (blue) Channel Up (Channel Fib 1.0) and pulled-back to the 1D MA100 before rising even more aggressively towards the 4.5 Fib ext. The common fact is that on both cases, the price touched the 1D MA100 eventually before rebounding.

At the moment though, BTC is above the former (blue) Channel Up and is transitioned into a Fibonacci dynamic pattern. As a result, there is no obvious Resistance right above besides the 2.0 Channel Fib extension. A bullish break-out this time may not necessarily require a 1D MA100 test before a more aggressive rise. Since however the new Halving event is expected in a week and a supply shock may initially cause a decline upon news that might already priced in, traders are advised to keep some 'dry powder' for a final test of the 1D MA100.

We have two targets for the medium-term: Target 1 at 85500 (marginally below the 1.786 Fib ext) and Target 2 at 120000 (marginally below the 4.5 Fib ext).

The signal to buy with more confidence on the 1D MA100 would be if you see the 1D RSI hitting the green cup pattern again as it happened on the previous price Triangle cases, which as you can see, have been fairly similar, getting overbought (above 70.00) prior to the Triangle and then deflating as the Triangle formed.

Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!


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