In this chart, I uncover price levels across an identified cyclical pattern hidden within Bitcoin.
I was initially hesitant to publish this, as I had been pondering the theory for a few days. However, as the price approaches the Phase 2 level, I believe the timing cannot be ignored, and a reaction may be imminent as Bitcoin could be on the verge of breaking out into Phase 2... I've posted a screenshot prior to where BTC is now (below)
My discovery in finding this was not intentional nor was it believable. However, after identifying some familiar projective price targets deriving from Bitcoin's first cycle the compelling results left me intrigued and were enough for me to continue. Whilst continuously applying my method more and more results seemed to match with key pivotable phases. Once I hit 2020, I was sure to expect some variances, but to my surprise, there was not, and price levels were again matched to pivotable levels. It is to that point I followed through into 2024 and beyond. As stated in the chart there is no trickery rather, there is logic and reason. It appears, these predictions beyond 2024 are realistic and do not point to crazy moon boy levels. So with that, I leave this here to revisit and pay my respects.
Some Observational and Key Points:
Final comments:
This is not an indication to be mega bullish and is NFA. The chart merely highlights developments I've identified and is not certain to play out, although quite probable. It is more of a "let's look back and indulge" - at least for me.
Thanks and Enjoy!
I was initially hesitant to publish this, as I had been pondering the theory for a few days. However, as the price approaches the Phase 2 level, I believe the timing cannot be ignored, and a reaction may be imminent as Bitcoin could be on the verge of breaking out into Phase 2... I've posted a screenshot prior to where BTC is now (below)
My discovery in finding this was not intentional nor was it believable. However, after identifying some familiar projective price targets deriving from Bitcoin's first cycle the compelling results left me intrigued and were enough for me to continue. Whilst continuously applying my method more and more results seemed to match with key pivotable phases. Once I hit 2020, I was sure to expect some variances, but to my surprise, there was not, and price levels were again matched to pivotable levels. It is to that point I followed through into 2024 and beyond. As stated in the chart there is no trickery rather, there is logic and reason. It appears, these predictions beyond 2024 are realistic and do not point to crazy moon boy levels. So with that, I leave this here to revisit and pay my respects.
Some Observational and Key Points:
- I base some findings on a 2 x 8-year cycle rather than the conventional 4-year cycle. However, it may appear shorter than expected. Just as there are diminishing returns, there too is an aspect of diminishing cycle timing.
- While cycles are often recognised by their low and high targets, not many observe the time it takes to surpass a previous all-time high (ATH) or low. This is interesting because Bitcoin does not exhibit this repetitive behaviour in its history.
- I observed the peaks and troughs while noting the counts and periods across cycle phases and took a visual snapshot towards 2022-24 playing into more likely that of 2013-16.
- I've projected 2 ATHs as a range due to the nature of placement. The first target is primary, and wicks above could stretch into the second. Projections are also based on a 2-week (close) timeframe.
Final comments:
This is not an indication to be mega bullish and is NFA. The chart merely highlights developments I've identified and is not certain to play out, although quite probable. It is more of a "let's look back and indulge" - at least for me.
Thanks and Enjoy!
Comment:
Here is a easier view of the chart
Comment:
Update: The 2-week close has surpassed the Phase 2 Breakout target. This occurred much sooner than in previous cycles, which does not invalidate the chart's analysis. While timing isn't the primary focus here, the emphasis lies on respecting the forecasted levels. According to the analysis/theory depicted in this chart, the probabilities suggest a bullish uptrend and continuation. It is plausible to anticipate a retest of this phase at $44,800 at a later stage before further continuation. Although not essential, a healthy retest would provide strength and reinforce market structure. If the below Breakout Phase 1 targets are not hit then it is either a matter of time before we do or this theory is invalidated and we are breaking a cyclical pattern.
Comment:
Hey, so I think today is a good day to post an update. Staying true to what was written in Phase 2 Breakout seems to be playing to fruition. I have placed my other mini target and breakouts which are not in the main chart but for an update, we have now broken above the $53k resistance and appear to be on the road to new ATHs. I'd be paying attention to $59-60k as this could be a nice little consolidation range.
Comment:
Time for an update as I want to shout out this BTC chart idea. So far this has being playing out nicely. Today BTC's 2 weekly closed below the $71k target. So there are few possible scenarios that could now play out:
- We continue and blast through onto the 2nd leg of this phase and top out near $91k turning $71k into support.
- We range, with wicks up and down around the $71k range, with a close below the target on LTFs daily, 3D, weekly etc (< 2W)
- We witness a greater pull which poses greater opportunities below $71k and continue upward slowly over the coming weeks to months.
Takeaways from previous reactions:
Historically 2/3 times we rejected and closed below this projective target, this would now be 3/4 times. Previous the drawdowns after being rejected ranged from 40%-80%, so there has been one serious dump (fake out).
Closing in new price discovery would be probable for continuation, but be mindful of the above as we did exhibit a serious fake out (flash crash) back in 2013.
Closing statement:
Since we closed below, we might now be seeing an whipsaw action that could open opportunities where it could mean that we come down lower in a proper correction. Although not necessary there is another 2 weeks window before we get another close. As previous indications suggests a greater pull-back could be in order, I believe it maybe short lived. There will be only a small chance to get in. I also do not believe that the below projections will get hit. Time to stay focused, the trend is UP and over the next few days I think we might be seeing some volatility come back in. Please see my other charts as those also show some confluence for strong yet quick corrective retracements.
- We continue and blast through onto the 2nd leg of this phase and top out near $91k turning $71k into support.
- We range, with wicks up and down around the $71k range, with a close below the target on LTFs daily, 3D, weekly etc (< 2W)
- We witness a greater pull which poses greater opportunities below $71k and continue upward slowly over the coming weeks to months.
Takeaways from previous reactions:
Historically 2/3 times we rejected and closed below this projective target, this would now be 3/4 times. Previous the drawdowns after being rejected ranged from 40%-80%, so there has been one serious dump (fake out).
Closing in new price discovery would be probable for continuation, but be mindful of the above as we did exhibit a serious fake out (flash crash) back in 2013.
Closing statement:
Since we closed below, we might now be seeing an whipsaw action that could open opportunities where it could mean that we come down lower in a proper correction. Although not necessary there is another 2 weeks window before we get another close. As previous indications suggests a greater pull-back could be in order, I believe it maybe short lived. There will be only a small chance to get in. I also do not believe that the below projections will get hit. Time to stay focused, the trend is UP and over the next few days I think we might be seeing some volatility come back in. Please see my other charts as those also show some confluence for strong yet quick corrective retracements.
Comment:
Another little update on this chart. Apologises, I never actually posted the 2 weekly, not realising that this screenshot was the 1 week. However, needless to say as mentioned 2/3 times (now 3/4) we rejected and close below. So probabilities would slightly lie in that favor. I also indicated that there would be a sign of a greater pull back if we closed below my projected target at $71k. It did temporarily stretch a little higher but now the question remains from what I updated in my previous closing statement, is it a short lived or a lower proper correction? Just know that a pullback could be up to 40% which brings us right back to the Phase 2 Breakout at $44,800, however, it is not what I see. I remain confluent with my other charts that do signify lower timeframe signals, ultimately these are what leads into the bigger moved. In this chart we wait and watch for the next 2 week close.
In this screenshot I have added another projective chart which could be a level to be considered if a greater pull-back comes to fruition.
In this screenshot I have added another projective chart which could be a level to be considered if a greater pull-back comes to fruition.
Comment:
Small little update as it seems timing was on point here. Not to say we cannot retrace lower as mentioned in my previous update, but the added projected target for now has be hit. I mere $30 off. 5 days until the next 2 week close and wicks below can occur, as long as close back above. We remain patience and see if this level can be break or hold.
Comment:
Another 2 week close update:
Well the results as mentioned in my previous update "wicks below can occur, as long as close back above" appeared to have played out. We held and closed back above the 62k price. Currently sitting within both projective targets, I suspect for this next 2 weeks, we do attempt to climb higher and not spend too much time within this range. Although it could still play out, 69k is key level, however, I'll be more confident if we hold and close above $72k (weekly-2W). Keep in mind that within this time we could experience a rapid sharp wick below the previous 2W low. This, in my opinion, if it were to occur and not close below, would be super bullish. Let's revisit in the coming days...
Well the results as mentioned in my previous update "wicks below can occur, as long as close back above" appeared to have played out. We held and closed back above the 62k price. Currently sitting within both projective targets, I suspect for this next 2 weeks, we do attempt to climb higher and not spend too much time within this range. Although it could still play out, 69k is key level, however, I'll be more confident if we hold and close above $72k (weekly-2W). Keep in mind that within this time we could experience a rapid sharp wick below the previous 2W low. This, in my opinion, if it were to occur and not close below, would be super bullish. Let's revisit in the coming days...
Comment:
Another 2-week close update:
Today we closed the 2-week period above the previous ATH, albeit just barely. However, we still opened within this range. This does give slight probabilities to more upside, and currently, we are now sitting above the top side of the phase 3 breakout (distribution) at around $72k. We now want to stay above this level and close multiple dailies to solidify a break into new price discovery. If this occurs, then sentiment or the rules bounded by this chart might just come to fruition.
Bearing in mind, this theory invokes a balance to price levels and major macro pivots, and the next target at $91k is something I'd be paying attention to, as it may just be the next area of interest that would leave a major sideways gapped range (much like 2020-2022) since breaking out of the previous phase.
As for the bearish side, I need to emphasize, this chart does not depict timings, and closes below the levels may suggest a continuation back within the range. We need to focus on that if the charts starts showing any signs of reversing, until then it's following this trajectory.
Thanks and this next 2 weeks will surely be a banger!
Today we closed the 2-week period above the previous ATH, albeit just barely. However, we still opened within this range. This does give slight probabilities to more upside, and currently, we are now sitting above the top side of the phase 3 breakout (distribution) at around $72k. We now want to stay above this level and close multiple dailies to solidify a break into new price discovery. If this occurs, then sentiment or the rules bounded by this chart might just come to fruition.
Bearing in mind, this theory invokes a balance to price levels and major macro pivots, and the next target at $91k is something I'd be paying attention to, as it may just be the next area of interest that would leave a major sideways gapped range (much like 2020-2022) since breaking out of the previous phase.
As for the bearish side, I need to emphasize, this chart does not depict timings, and closes below the levels may suggest a continuation back within the range. We need to focus on that if the charts starts showing any signs of reversing, until then it's following this trajectory.
Thanks and this next 2 weeks will surely be a banger!
Comment:
A final 2 week close for April 2024:
Today we closed below the phase 3 breakout which as mentioned in my previous update, this may suggest a continuation within the range. Since this has now occurred we either see a short term bearish reversal or a longer drawn out consolidation with the current range. I've placed another projective target ($58,300) which I would consider the last point of where we would need to hold. Remember wicks below are fine and based on this 2W timeframe we would need to close above in the coming weeks in order to remain bullish. I would also assess the daily closes if this target is reached.
For the bullish take, I would now need to see a close above the Phase 3 Breakout target at $71k
Note: I've also changed the temporary projective targets to dashes so that they are distinguishable from the original published chart.
Thanks
Today we closed below the phase 3 breakout which as mentioned in my previous update, this may suggest a continuation within the range. Since this has now occurred we either see a short term bearish reversal or a longer drawn out consolidation with the current range. I've placed another projective target ($58,300) which I would consider the last point of where we would need to hold. Remember wicks below are fine and based on this 2W timeframe we would need to close above in the coming weeks in order to remain bullish. I would also assess the daily closes if this target is reached.
For the bullish take, I would now need to see a close above the Phase 3 Breakout target at $71k
Note: I've also changed the temporary projective targets to dashes so that they are distinguishable from the original published chart.
Thanks
