Bitcoin BTC - Futures Affecting BTC Whats Next? H&S That's What.
Bitcoin BTC
Sorry for long hiatus, not being synced to the BTC market at the time, I thought it better to post nothing at all then attempts.
Simple analogy : Retail Investment, why HODL, trade but don't hold:
Stay strong people, When BTC was $20000, simply, the financial nature of the economy wouldn't allow that many millionaire's (statement related to inflated prices, BTC/ALTS trades, not $$$ trades) since then Alt coins have also diluted the market, taking $$$ away from traditional cryptocurrency's hence adding additional downward pressure to the BTC price. Therefore when weak hands are purged from the market....or more succinctly there money being taken through losses, the profit margin/manipulation will end & result in a stable, more resilient coin. This will allow the tech to catch up with the speculation...or crypto winter again, has tech improved since 2013?, you be the judge. Would like to see product innovation to reassure coin burnt investors, why to trade price speculation again. End of year Bitcoin, Bulletproof adoption/Lighting network.
Futures:
Weekly although turning +ive, not an issue really as the Daily/Hourly have more influence in current market environment. Both times this month, reversals have been initialised without sustained volume/strength but sharp inclines resulting in lower highs also within this timespan (black circles) This could show a lower support is needed for potential reversal. Futures impacting BTC price due simply to the fact that retail investors currently are in the minority. First Cboe traders selling BTC (10/06/18, $7600-$6100) to settle before expiry XBT contracts & hence re-buying after (14/06/18, $6100-$6900). CME was second with BTCM8 selling (22/06/18, $6800-$6000) & hence have re-bought (29/07/18, $5900-$6800), currently we see Cboe being sold off slowly to cover contract losses....do we expect to see BTC price rise after Cboe XBTN8 July 14/18th or weaken as the market unable to sustain shorts at this support level. Answer will come in what you believe drives the market : manipulation, futures, price speculation, proof of work eg projects.
Current Market:
RSI: Oversold @25 which aligns with previous price reversal attempts. Double bottoms have been the trend with slight fluidity between them. Could be slight dip before the rise satisfying both trend & H&S.
Volume: Max volume recorded @$6130 (vol per period) on the drop, showing support for the Right Shoulder incline.
Interesting volume on the monthly shows consistent downwards gradient & "volume precedes trend", not a good sign.
Ichi: Showing support level @$6300, merge of $6500-$6150 levels on lower time frames. If broken, this will provide resistance against the rebound as below, support is harder to find.
ShortsVSLongs show the market expecting a rise as longs have 2:1 on shorts, this trend preceded jump in price on many previous occasions.......except 1 :)
Overall:
Coming week will be important for Bitcoin (seem to say that every couple weeks) as CME/Cboe Futures are within a week of each other resulting in larger push & pull between traders.
BTC Volume continual decline, Low Highs/High lows, all point to downward trend continuing Mid-term, as would like to see reversal price spike with reason behind it or solid bottom to instill confidence/stop manipulated shorting.
Short term reversal seems to be on the cards or at least support on the price drop. Again if traders feel risk after the initial spike in price.....low high/high low we are back to the grindstone.
BTC is seeing some tough times , so I should write this:
***Education Purposes only***
Sorry for long hiatus, not being synced to the BTC market at the time, I thought it better to post nothing at all then attempts.
Simple analogy : Retail Investment, why HODL, trade but don't hold:
Stay strong people, When BTC was $20000, simply, the financial nature of the economy wouldn't allow that many millionaire's (statement related to inflated prices, BTC/ALTS trades, not $$$ trades) since then Alt coins have also diluted the market, taking $$$ away from traditional cryptocurrency's hence adding additional downward pressure to the BTC price. Therefore when weak hands are purged from the market....or more succinctly there money being taken through losses, the profit margin/manipulation will end & result in a stable, more resilient coin. This will allow the tech to catch up with the speculation...or crypto winter again, has tech improved since 2013?, you be the judge. Would like to see product innovation to reassure coin burnt investors, why to trade price speculation again. End of year Bitcoin, Bulletproof adoption/Lighting network.
Futures:
Weekly although turning +ive, not an issue really as the Daily/Hourly have more influence in current market environment. Both times this month, reversals have been initialised without sustained volume/strength but sharp inclines resulting in lower highs also within this timespan (black circles) This could show a lower support is needed for potential reversal. Futures impacting BTC price due simply to the fact that retail investors currently are in the minority. First Cboe traders selling BTC (10/06/18, $7600-$6100) to settle before expiry XBT contracts & hence re-buying after (14/06/18, $6100-$6900). CME was second with BTCM8 selling (22/06/18, $6800-$6000) & hence have re-bought (29/07/18, $5900-$6800), currently we see Cboe being sold off slowly to cover contract losses....do we expect to see BTC price rise after Cboe XBTN8 July 14/18th or weaken as the market unable to sustain shorts at this support level. Answer will come in what you believe drives the market : manipulation, futures, price speculation, proof of work eg projects.
Current Market:
RSI: Oversold @25 which aligns with previous price reversal attempts. Double bottoms have been the trend with slight fluidity between them. Could be slight dip before the rise satisfying both trend & H&S.
Volume: Max volume recorded @$6130 (vol per period) on the drop, showing support for the Right Shoulder incline.
Interesting volume on the monthly shows consistent downwards gradient & "volume precedes trend", not a good sign.
Ichi: Showing support level @$6300, merge of $6500-$6150 levels on lower time frames. If broken, this will provide resistance against the rebound as below, support is harder to find.
ShortsVSLongs show the market expecting a rise as longs have 2:1 on shorts, this trend preceded jump in price on many previous occasions.......except 1 :)
Overall:
Coming week will be important for Bitcoin (seem to say that every couple weeks) as CME/Cboe Futures are within a week of each other resulting in larger push & pull between traders.
BTC Volume continual decline, Low Highs/High lows, all point to downward trend continuing Mid-term, as would like to see reversal price spike with reason behind it or solid bottom to instill confidence/stop manipulated shorting.
Short term reversal seems to be on the cards or at least support on the price drop. Again if traders feel risk after the initial spike in price.....low high/high low we are back to the grindstone.
BTC is seeing some tough times , so I should write this:
***Education Purposes only***
Comment:
Do we have lift off for H&S?
As we can see the BTC price rebounded sharply off the bottom support rally trend line...most likely longs being hit, which the BTCSHORTS index shows a dramatic shift to long position from traders...this satisfied both the H&S & RSI scenario for a price rise.
Volume increased during this period but would be expected as previously mentioned "Max volume recorded @$6130 (vol per period) on the drop" showing support for the Right Shoulder incline.
-RSI on 4HR indicating double bottom completed before the rise
-Ichi resistance weakening increasing chance of a break of the Ichimoku Senkou Line resistance
$6800 1st lower low we need break in order to achieve reversal. Next $7800
Before the Last rally broke down ($5800-$6800) we saw real strength for the first time in terms of volume/ventured risk, will be looking for indicators for this to continue.
FYI - Conbase Custody June 2nd Released, BTC price rise $5800-$6400...that was the reasoning for the last rally & maybe why it showed strength.
custody.coinbase.com
As we can see the BTC price rebounded sharply off the bottom support rally trend line...most likely longs being hit, which the BTCSHORTS index shows a dramatic shift to long position from traders...this satisfied both the H&S & RSI scenario for a price rise.
Volume increased during this period but would be expected as previously mentioned "Max volume recorded @$6130 (vol per period) on the drop" showing support for the Right Shoulder incline.
-RSI on 4HR indicating double bottom completed before the rise
-Ichi resistance weakening increasing chance of a break of the Ichimoku Senkou Line resistance
$6800 1st lower low we need break in order to achieve reversal. Next $7800
Before the Last rally broke down ($5800-$6800) we saw real strength for the first time in terms of volume/ventured risk, will be looking for indicators for this to continue.
FYI - Conbase Custody June 2nd Released, BTC price rise $5800-$6400...that was the reasoning for the last rally & maybe why it showed strength.
custody.coinbase.com
Short term path of least resistance downwards. sharp price spike could change but risk trades on mins indicates small arc downwards