BTC still has its work cut out for it and will for some time.
Long story short, The path forward and upward is going to be a tough and what I feel will be a long one without long term retail investors coming back to the game.
Let's go over some TA though...
- July 20th's rally still couldn't push it high enough to even touch the long standing RSI bear trend. If you zoom into the RSI indicator you would see it was close but no cigar, and rejected as of this writing as it battles it out within a $500 window for the past 9 hours, again as of this writing. The RSI also points to bearish lower lows from June 21 till July 20 regardless of July 20's dip not being as low as Junes
- The green trendlines for the highs on the downwards daily closes start at first swing high after the June 21'st dip and connects to the July 4th candle high. As you can see there's not been a day since when even a wick touched that trend.
Also note that if you look at the volume candles since June 29th, you will see all of the green days have been on low volume. The biggest green candle was on the bounce from July 21. Big picture, when you think about it, it's disappointing that's all we got for a bounce since in theory there should have been many many more people salivating at the chance for yet another 29 touch to be ready to dig in again, but the monstrous rally it should have been didn't happen.
According to some data I have seen, the majority of people buying the dip were of course whales. Where's retail investors? They are either waiting for even lower prices or never coming back period if they got shaken out for big losses if they bought higher and don't want to wait who knows how long to break even, or they perhaps can't wait because they need the money for necessities instead of sitting dormant and losing value.
- Two yellow horizontal lines indicate clear resistance on candle closes where the volume profile also creates obvious shelves. The volume profile indicates the point of control at 32,818. Look closely and you will see this level coincides near perfectly with multiple candle closes/opens and was a clear hard wick rejection on July 21. We're not going anywhere higher until we can breach that POC and then the trendline for the lower highs.
Personally just my opinion, I don't see it breaking the POC AND the downtrend resistance line unless retail comes back on board as investors. Not scalpers/traders, but investors. (Fundamental analysis tidbit: Currently I feel the majority of the people in the space now are traders and whales looking to out-whale one another which is going to make these ranges very predictable as they continue to try and accumulate at lower prices. The majority of retail I'm sure as I touched on earlier, paper handed and we need them to return. Remember this is not like last year when Covid/stimulus and unemployment money gave people extra income to throw around. Ask yourself how many of those people are gone by now or are bag holding with no more money to buy to cause the price to increase. )
- 2 fib levels were drawn, one from our peak ATH and to the bottom of the June 21 wick and then from the June 16th high to the 21'st bottom again. You will see some confluence in fib lines near the 31.2 and 31.6 areas with a perfect line up at 36663. This shows that BTC will have trouble digging between 31.6 and 30.8. If it breaks the 30.8 we most definitely retest 29.7 . On the upside, 36.5 should be wall to grind through as well.
How many times do we retest ~28-29 before the wall gives way? Will it ever give way and will whales and scalpers keep this sideways momentum going for years until something happens, some new catalyst, to get retail hyped on bitcoin again. People getting absolutely rekt on Doge and the like didn't help anything, and the relative few who made it big I'm sure weren't enough to help the cause in the eyes of the many, and in fact likely only soured the view of the entire space as it just made it appear as if this all one big joke of a casino. Elon calling Doge a hustle on SNL probably didn't help either.
It's almost as if the events of the past year need to be buried in people's memories before people feel safe to return. Who knows how long that will take? All of the hopium on Youtube and Twitter isn't going to magically pull new retail investors out of the air and currently only serves as feel good baloney to get you to believe you're gonna be rich pretty fast. You need retail to prop you up and make you rich. They aren't currently here in enough numbers
The action of Bitcoin over the past couple months reflects the activity of those currently in the space, or people leaving the space since we are of course on a downtrend. This is a bear market. Welcome. Stop kidding yourself. We can't magically make new highs unless we magically create new people with new magic money they want to invest. The catalyst is no longer there like it was last year.
The hard pill I think many of us are going to have to swallow is that last year was a fluke and artificially inflated the cycle with tons of new expendable income and desperate hopeful common people looking to put extra cash into digital gold thinking they have found the way out of the rat race with their stimulus and unemployment money. But those people got shaken out or are bagholding. Either way, that harsh reality isn't conducive to bitcoin suddenly making new highs and blasting off to 100k or even 50 again. It's going to take a while, and the sooner we all accept that and stop avoiding the reality of the space and the factors that cause price action the better we will be.
Stop scoffing at the idea of a 15k BTC again or lower and set your stoplosses.
On a side note, the faster alts can detatch themselves from BTC's price action and become their own thing for people to invest in without fearing what BTC is going to do, the better.
Let's go over some TA though...
- July 20th's rally still couldn't push it high enough to even touch the long standing RSI bear trend. If you zoom into the RSI indicator you would see it was close but no cigar, and rejected as of this writing as it battles it out within a $500 window for the past 9 hours, again as of this writing. The RSI also points to bearish lower lows from June 21 till July 20 regardless of July 20's dip not being as low as Junes
- The green trendlines for the highs on the downwards daily closes start at first swing high after the June 21'st dip and connects to the July 4th candle high. As you can see there's not been a day since when even a wick touched that trend.
Also note that if you look at the volume candles since June 29th, you will see all of the green days have been on low volume. The biggest green candle was on the bounce from July 21. Big picture, when you think about it, it's disappointing that's all we got for a bounce since in theory there should have been many many more people salivating at the chance for yet another 29 touch to be ready to dig in again, but the monstrous rally it should have been didn't happen.
According to some data I have seen, the majority of people buying the dip were of course whales. Where's retail investors? They are either waiting for even lower prices or never coming back period if they got shaken out for big losses if they bought higher and don't want to wait who knows how long to break even, or they perhaps can't wait because they need the money for necessities instead of sitting dormant and losing value.
- Two yellow horizontal lines indicate clear resistance on candle closes where the volume profile also creates obvious shelves. The volume profile indicates the point of control at 32,818. Look closely and you will see this level coincides near perfectly with multiple candle closes/opens and was a clear hard wick rejection on July 21. We're not going anywhere higher until we can breach that POC and then the trendline for the lower highs.
Personally just my opinion, I don't see it breaking the POC AND the downtrend resistance line unless retail comes back on board as investors. Not scalpers/traders, but investors. (Fundamental analysis tidbit: Currently I feel the majority of the people in the space now are traders and whales looking to out-whale one another which is going to make these ranges very predictable as they continue to try and accumulate at lower prices. The majority of retail I'm sure as I touched on earlier, paper handed and we need them to return. Remember this is not like last year when Covid/stimulus and unemployment money gave people extra income to throw around. Ask yourself how many of those people are gone by now or are bag holding with no more money to buy to cause the price to increase. )
- 2 fib levels were drawn, one from our peak ATH and to the bottom of the June 21 wick and then from the June 16th high to the 21'st bottom again. You will see some confluence in fib lines near the 31.2 and 31.6 areas with a perfect line up at 36663. This shows that BTC will have trouble digging between 31.6 and 30.8. If it breaks the 30.8 we most definitely retest 29.7 . On the upside, 36.5 should be wall to grind through as well.
How many times do we retest ~28-29 before the wall gives way? Will it ever give way and will whales and scalpers keep this sideways momentum going for years until something happens, some new catalyst, to get retail hyped on bitcoin again. People getting absolutely rekt on Doge and the like didn't help anything, and the relative few who made it big I'm sure weren't enough to help the cause in the eyes of the many, and in fact likely only soured the view of the entire space as it just made it appear as if this all one big joke of a casino. Elon calling Doge a hustle on SNL probably didn't help either.
It's almost as if the events of the past year need to be buried in people's memories before people feel safe to return. Who knows how long that will take? All of the hopium on Youtube and Twitter isn't going to magically pull new retail investors out of the air and currently only serves as feel good baloney to get you to believe you're gonna be rich pretty fast. You need retail to prop you up and make you rich. They aren't currently here in enough numbers
The action of Bitcoin over the past couple months reflects the activity of those currently in the space, or people leaving the space since we are of course on a downtrend. This is a bear market. Welcome. Stop kidding yourself. We can't magically make new highs unless we magically create new people with new magic money they want to invest. The catalyst is no longer there like it was last year.
The hard pill I think many of us are going to have to swallow is that last year was a fluke and artificially inflated the cycle with tons of new expendable income and desperate hopeful common people looking to put extra cash into digital gold thinking they have found the way out of the rat race with their stimulus and unemployment money. But those people got shaken out or are bagholding. Either way, that harsh reality isn't conducive to bitcoin suddenly making new highs and blasting off to 100k or even 50 again. It's going to take a while, and the sooner we all accept that and stop avoiding the reality of the space and the factors that cause price action the better we will be.
Stop scoffing at the idea of a 15k BTC again or lower and set your stoplosses.
On a side note, the faster alts can detatch themselves from BTC's price action and become their own thing for people to invest in without fearing what BTC is going to do, the better.