Bitcoin is finding a strong resistance between $27 000 - $28 500

Since our last update on Bitcoin, not much has happened in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin oscillated between $27 000 and $28 500, finding strong resistance around this level. Meanwhile, volume continued to decline, still raising a question about the rally's sustainability. Overall, the bullish trend started to weaken, turning more into a neutral one. However, we remain cautious as low liquidity in the market may cause a volatile move in either way. We previously outlined that the rebound in stocks would provide a temporary lifeline for BTCUSD. Therefore, we will continue to pay close attention to the stock market, mainly the tech sector, which stays highly correlated with Bitcoin. Sooner or later, we expect it to break down and drag cryptocurrencies with it. In fact, we would not be surprised to see investors taking profit in order to cover losses elsewhere (just like on previous occasions in gold). Thus, we stick to our previous assessment that the current rally will likely turn out to be only another bear market rally.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 displays the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD on 24th March 2023. The yellow arrow indicates a huge spike in the price of an asset. However, the spike to $29 380 lasted about a second and is not observable on other exchanges. Therefore, it can be considered a glitch and discarded from observation.

Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish

Illustration 1.02

The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD within the ascending channel. The green and red arrows indicate the growing price accompanied by a declining volume, which is a questionable development (as for the rally). The yellow arrow indicates the price’s return back into an ascending channel.

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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Trade active:

One more thought to the previous assessment - if a banking crisis calms down, it will likely bolster outflows from Bitcoin.