BTC 3D must hold 200 MA. Dump looming? Calm before the storm?

Will the bears hibernate this winter? Obviously, there has been a lot of comparisons between the 2014 and 2018 Bitcoin bear markets. While the fractals haven't been identical, I think we are somewhere in the red box and will soon start the final capitulation dump. Currently, we're at the end of a massive descending triangle, which break to the downside 70% of the time, so a break of market structure and increased volatility is imminent. The 3 day is on the 200 MA with multiple EMAs all pointing towards the downside/200 MA cross. Ask yourself this: Why hasn't the price action responded to all the positive news in the market? Why do we continue to make lower-highs on the daily? Why do we continue to have bearish EMA crosses on multiple time-frames (3D, 5D, Weekly)? Oh, because WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET. And this market has been too positive, in my opinion. Plan to hear some bad news and major FUD, soon. I think we can easily drop 50% from here before the next bull market. Moment of silence for all the people that got liquidated on that $1500 candle stick a few days ago... Personally, I'm taking a neutral position in fiat with a bear bias and ready to catch these bounces for some nice swing trading. Remember to look at the big picture (weekly + monthly) charts - we are clearly in a bear market and they end in capitulation. With that said, I think 2019 will be the year.

Comment:

Possible Bitcoin targets in green for long-term hodl. However, if we break above and hold the .618 my bearish bias would greatly diminish. I'll all about preserving capital at the moment.