Here's a comprehensive analysis of BTC performed on a 2 Week time-frame in which we'll look at the previous halving cycles and try to understand how these cyclical events illustrate fractal behavior on the price structure. We'll also compare these cyclical effects to speculate what to possibly expect for the upcoming halving.
Post Halving Effects :
One of the reasons why Bitcoin halving dates are so eagerly anticipated is the price of BTC - or, more specifically, what happens to it after the halving. As we all know the price of BTC skyrockets after and around each BTC halving date - at least, that has been the case with the three halvings that we have already encountered throughout the Bitcoin halving history.
BTC had a price of about $12 just before the first halving in 2012, and it peaked at a high of more than $1,200 after the first halving in anticipation of the upcoming halving and as a result of other events that coincided with this event.
Then it's price was around $650 prior to the second halving. As the halving occurred and the market began to turn bullish, BTC eventually reached a price of around $19.8k.
Finally, the price of BTC was around $9,000 before the last halving in 2020. Following the halving, BTC reached a new high of $69k (approx) per coin.
Now, aside from the above mentioned factual evidence, here are some speculative ones worth considering because, at various scales and points in time, they do show self-similar repeating patterns.
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Pre-Halving Effects :
1) Measured Time Range -
In this chart, a trendline that marks the end of a bull market and the start of an unprecedented bear market and is drawn from an ATH (major swig high) before each halving cycle.
(Trendlines typically assist in identifying the market's overall trend direction, sometimes as support and resistances, however in this research they are merely used to support the idea and provide a visual reference)
After the price breaks the downtrendline, it suggests an end of a bear market and as the price approaches the halving date, we find a preliminary correlation between each halving cycle. The time period (number of weeks) it takes to each halving increases by the factor of two :-
2) Pre-Halving Rallies -
Now, let's talk about how the price structure behaves before the Bitcoin Halving or “The Halvening”.
If we look closely at the price, we can observe that it signals something more. To put it simply, the price of BTC starts moving upward months before the dates of the price halving once it is released out from the jaws and claws of the bear market (downward trendline) and this rally, along with some pullbacks forms a local High.
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Although the precise date is not yet known, it is anticipated that Bitcoin's next halving will take place around May 2024 given that each halving occurs roughly every four years. Nonetheless, this does not negate the fact that BTC halvings do, in fact, contribute to changes in the price of Bitcoin. These events are highly anticipated and show a distinct pattern; whether or not it will remain this way with the next Bitcoin halving dates, we'll just have to wait and watch.
Finally, to sum up this analysis, I would like to state that based on previous cycles, there is a possibility that this entire concept will take shape, and rather than being predictive, I would rather remain speculative over time as the price develops over the course of the following years.
Feel free to share your opinion on BTC in the comments below. This is not a financial advise, DYOR.
Post Halving Effects :
One of the reasons why Bitcoin halving dates are so eagerly anticipated is the price of BTC - or, more specifically, what happens to it after the halving. As we all know the price of BTC skyrockets after and around each BTC halving date - at least, that has been the case with the three halvings that we have already encountered throughout the Bitcoin halving history.
Then it's price was around $650 prior to the second halving. As the halving occurred and the market began to turn bullish, BTC eventually reached a price of around $19.8k.
Finally, the price of BTC was around $9,000 before the last halving in 2020. Following the halving, BTC reached a new high of $69k (approx) per coin.
Now, aside from the above mentioned factual evidence, here are some speculative ones worth considering because, at various scales and points in time, they do show self-similar repeating patterns.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Pre-Halving Effects :
1) Measured Time Range -
(Trendlines typically assist in identifying the market's overall trend direction, sometimes as support and resistances, however in this research they are merely used to support the idea and provide a visual reference)
After the price breaks the downtrendline, it suggests an end of a bear market and as the price approaches the halving date, we find a preliminary correlation between each halving cycle. The time period (number of weeks) it takes to each halving increases by the factor of two :-
- Cycle 1 - 52 Weeks
- Cycle 2 - 54 Weeks (+2)
- Cycle 3 - 58 Weeks (+4)
- Cycle 4 (Range) - 64 Weeks (+6) or 66 Weeks (+8)
2) Pre-Halving Rallies -
Now, let's talk about how the price structure behaves before the Bitcoin Halving or “The Halvening”.
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Although the precise date is not yet known, it is anticipated that Bitcoin's next halving will take place around May 2024 given that each halving occurs roughly every four years. Nonetheless, this does not negate the fact that BTC halvings do, in fact, contribute to changes in the price of Bitcoin. These events are highly anticipated and show a distinct pattern; whether or not it will remain this way with the next Bitcoin halving dates, we'll just have to wait and watch.
Finally, to sum up this analysis, I would like to state that based on previous cycles, there is a possibility that this entire concept will take shape, and rather than being predictive, I would rather remain speculative over time as the price develops over the course of the following years.
Feel free to share your opinion on BTC in the comments below. This is not a financial advise, DYOR.