BTC WAVE E ... consumed by fire, give rise to the Pheonix!
Hello guys.
So here's an update on my idea ... some polishing up done, with the new data, but the concept still remains the same. For those looking for a summary only.
- we are likely forming wave E of a triangle pattern (see red wave)
- we are likely in an impulse wave, where wave 3 ends and wave 4 starts (see purple wave).
- the purple line is my highest probability, but the two black lines are other possibilities. So likely bottom is 6.9k (after a rise and then fall again), but 6.5k, 6k and 5.4k are also possibilities (the paths are shown in the black lines).
- overall I see after this bottom, a nice bull market ... and look forward to the second half of 2018!
OK so here is a more detailed explanation:
We hit 7270, and came within 380 points of the triangle bottom. Not much left to go. But it is clear, two things are happening ... likely it's mostly shorts closing their positions (buying back bitcoin), and perhaps a bit of FOMO starting (people jumping in long guessing it's the bottom).
The red wave E shown in my chart will likely be made up of an impulse wave (shown in purple). After reassessing the wave, I believe we are due for a wave 4 (UP) soon, before a final wave 5 down. That coincides with the bounces we are seeing (from 7270 to 7532 so far). But still not enough to convince me we are in wave 4 ... I look for breaking the current channel we are in, and the upper parallel is currently sitting in the 7600 territory (so I want to see it above that to confirm we are in a new wave up).
Wave 4 will obviously take us higher, and my rough estimate at this stage is 7800 - 8100, with the most likely target actually being the higher end of this range. I'll know better once we've cross 7600 to see how much steam the bulls have.
I strongly believe because we are only 380 points from the triangle bottom, the bears want to test that. If that's correct, a great play would be to short from the top of wave 4, and then close profits when the final wave 5 gets close to the triangle bottom, then look to long when wave 5 is close to finish (perhaps ladder in your buys at key levels). Wave E's (red wave) can extend past the triangle bottom (would be a great fake out ... and one last squeeze of longs looking to get in at triangle bottom). So I've shown a black line (one on the right) which extends to test the previous bottoms (6.4k/6.5k territory), before a bounce up.
Please note, as I indicated we do not have solid confirmation that wave 4 has started. This could easily turn south again and wave 3 continues. That is the black line I've drawn on the left. This would eventually lead to wave 4 and then a wave 5 could take us down much further, where I have a possible bounce at 6k and even 5.4k is a possibility for me in this scenario.
I do believe this triangle is a large continuation pattern. After a nice impulse up to 20k ... we break up out of this triangle once we complete WAVE E and to new highs. I am look forward to the second half of this year.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
So here's an update on my idea ... some polishing up done, with the new data, but the concept still remains the same. For those looking for a summary only.
- we are likely forming wave E of a triangle pattern (see red wave)
- we are likely in an impulse wave, where wave 3 ends and wave 4 starts (see purple wave).
- the purple line is my highest probability, but the two black lines are other possibilities. So likely bottom is 6.9k (after a rise and then fall again), but 6.5k, 6k and 5.4k are also possibilities (the paths are shown in the black lines).
- overall I see after this bottom, a nice bull market ... and look forward to the second half of 2018!
OK so here is a more detailed explanation:
We hit 7270, and came within 380 points of the triangle bottom. Not much left to go. But it is clear, two things are happening ... likely it's mostly shorts closing their positions (buying back bitcoin), and perhaps a bit of FOMO starting (people jumping in long guessing it's the bottom).
The red wave E shown in my chart will likely be made up of an impulse wave (shown in purple). After reassessing the wave, I believe we are due for a wave 4 (UP) soon, before a final wave 5 down. That coincides with the bounces we are seeing (from 7270 to 7532 so far). But still not enough to convince me we are in wave 4 ... I look for breaking the current channel we are in, and the upper parallel is currently sitting in the 7600 territory (so I want to see it above that to confirm we are in a new wave up).
Wave 4 will obviously take us higher, and my rough estimate at this stage is 7800 - 8100, with the most likely target actually being the higher end of this range. I'll know better once we've cross 7600 to see how much steam the bulls have.
I strongly believe because we are only 380 points from the triangle bottom, the bears want to test that. If that's correct, a great play would be to short from the top of wave 4, and then close profits when the final wave 5 gets close to the triangle bottom, then look to long when wave 5 is close to finish (perhaps ladder in your buys at key levels). Wave E's (red wave) can extend past the triangle bottom (would be a great fake out ... and one last squeeze of longs looking to get in at triangle bottom). So I've shown a black line (one on the right) which extends to test the previous bottoms (6.4k/6.5k territory), before a bounce up.
Please note, as I indicated we do not have solid confirmation that wave 4 has started. This could easily turn south again and wave 3 continues. That is the black line I've drawn on the left. This would eventually lead to wave 4 and then a wave 5 could take us down much further, where I have a possible bounce at 6k and even 5.4k is a possibility for me in this scenario.
I do believe this triangle is a large continuation pattern. After a nice impulse up to 20k ... we break up out of this triangle once we complete WAVE E and to new highs. I am look forward to the second half of this year.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
Comment:
I've been discussing the BTC cycle (like over years) with one fellow, seems very knowledgeable. Anyhow ... I believe we expect a nice bounce after this wave down completes (wave 5, not wave 3). But after that, there is a scary scenario that can take BTC down low ... let's not get ahead of ourselves ... I'll try and keep the look ahead realistic with options, as more data comes in.