From our last idea, I incorrectly drew the Elliot wave count from the lack of attention to high time frames (weekly and above) and overlooked a bearish momentum divergence that printed back in early November.
I believe we're on the verge of entering bear market territory if 47k doesn't hold over the next couple of days and weeks. 47k at the moment has confluence with the ATH 1 white trendline, the Elliot wave impulse PoC now sitting at ~46k, the developing weekly PoC, and the 350 D MA. But the most important line of defense out of those four would be the 350D MA. If you look back on previous market cycles anytime we've closed below it on a standard daily candle, it resulted in a multi-month sometimes a multi-year bear market, and we did so on Dec. 13th hinting a warning of another downtrend. This downtrend will more than likely happen once we've consolidated a bit more likely until we hit ~5% levels on the BBWP indicator noted below.
On the shorter time frames, BTC print a 4-hour bullish divergence as well as confirmed the breakout of an important trendline, but failed to continuously move in an uptrend until the posting of this idea. A short idea would be invalidated if either:
You could argue that the bearish case as of now is invalidated from a fundamental perspective if you take into account the debt ceiling being risen as a bullish move, and it is. If you are going short I suggest having a very short stop loss at the impulse VAH, taking profit along the way of the fib levels on the chart.
Note, this uptrend may also not be invalidated given evidence of diminishing returns and interest of institutional investors which will help with cooling off some volatility. The same goes for the $SPX; since it has a bit more room for an uptrend against inflation, I believe the overall trend is an uptrend, it's just that for now there is room for another selloff until ~30k.
Overall, I'm neutral and uncertain on $BTC's movement at the moment until either we fail to support 47k to confirm a bear trend or break out past 50k to confirm a bull trend. You could argue 42k is the bottom if we consolidate there again slowly over the next couple of days seeing as how $BTC did hit another low a bit close to the initial oversold wick that went down to 29k on May 19th. Debt ceiling rising + daily candle closing under 350D MA could equal more crabbing and consolidation from here on out for a while.
More easier to read chart to overview:
Key Levels:
Support
-47k (Impulse PoC, ATH 1 white trendline, 350D MA)
-40k (0.618 fib level, M S2 CPR)
-Impulse VAL at 31k
-S3 M CPR at 29k
-1.272 fib at 22.5k
-ATH 1 white trendline
-ATH 2 white trendline
Resistance
-49.6k(S1 M CPR, 0.786 fib on shorter timeframes)
-Impulse VAH at 52k
-M CPR Lines at 59k, 69k, 79k, and 89k
Invalidations:
-Impulse VAH at 52k
-28k for Impulse wave start.
I believe we're on the verge of entering bear market territory if 47k doesn't hold over the next couple of days and weeks. 47k at the moment has confluence with the ATH 1 white trendline, the Elliot wave impulse PoC now sitting at ~46k, the developing weekly PoC, and the 350 D MA. But the most important line of defense out of those four would be the 350D MA. If you look back on previous market cycles anytime we've closed below it on a standard daily candle, it resulted in a multi-month sometimes a multi-year bear market, and we did so on Dec. 13th hinting a warning of another downtrend. This downtrend will more than likely happen once we've consolidated a bit more likely until we hit ~5% levels on the BBWP indicator noted below.
On the shorter time frames, BTC print a 4-hour bullish divergence as well as confirmed the breakout of an important trendline, but failed to continuously move in an uptrend until the posting of this idea. A short idea would be invalidated if either:
- We blast past the VAH of 52k
- $ETH closes past $4050 on a daily candle
- Bull div. on daily and higher time frames
- Breakout of trendline resistance or the 0.786 fib level noted below:
You could argue that the bearish case as of now is invalidated from a fundamental perspective if you take into account the debt ceiling being risen as a bullish move, and it is. If you are going short I suggest having a very short stop loss at the impulse VAH, taking profit along the way of the fib levels on the chart.
Note, this uptrend may also not be invalidated given evidence of diminishing returns and interest of institutional investors which will help with cooling off some volatility. The same goes for the $SPX; since it has a bit more room for an uptrend against inflation, I believe the overall trend is an uptrend, it's just that for now there is room for another selloff until ~30k.
Overall, I'm neutral and uncertain on $BTC's movement at the moment until either we fail to support 47k to confirm a bear trend or break out past 50k to confirm a bull trend. You could argue 42k is the bottom if we consolidate there again slowly over the next couple of days seeing as how $BTC did hit another low a bit close to the initial oversold wick that went down to 29k on May 19th. Debt ceiling rising + daily candle closing under 350D MA could equal more crabbing and consolidation from here on out for a while.
More easier to read chart to overview:
Key Levels:
Support
-47k (Impulse PoC, ATH 1 white trendline, 350D MA)
-40k (0.618 fib level, M S2 CPR)
-Impulse VAL at 31k
-S3 M CPR at 29k
-1.272 fib at 22.5k
-ATH 1 white trendline
-ATH 2 white trendline
Resistance
-49.6k(S1 M CPR, 0.786 fib on shorter timeframes)
-Impulse VAH at 52k
-M CPR Lines at 59k, 69k, 79k, and 89k
Invalidations:
-Impulse VAH at 52k
-28k for Impulse wave start.
Comment:
Reversal seems to be in play according to the 4 hour TF as long as 48k holds. BBWP indicator crossed over briefly until it went back down toward a consolidation reading. Its possible to consolidate a bit more in a slight upward trend.
If we do get a pump it is also possible to get a rejection near 57k as there is a naked weekly PoC there.
If we do get a pump it is also possible to get a rejection near 57k as there is a naked weekly PoC there.
Still uncertain on who will take control soon whether it be the bears/bulls considering I'm also uncertain on the sub-elliot wave count since the drop from 68k. I'm leaning on an impulsive downtrend, with another leg down remaining toward the 40k-42k levels. We did have a wick over $4050 with $ETH so that may be interpreted w/ a slight bullish bias amidst all this uncertainty.