It’s #TATuesday: Macro events are driving the crypto market
Good Morning!
China's property developer crisis started by Evergrande has spilled over into crypto at lighting speed. There has been a typical "risk-off" move across equity/commodity and crypto.
Correlation was very high during the selling waves. If you look at the three indices from FTX: the ALT, MID, and SHIT indices all showed the same pattern on the way down. We are returning to what I have in the past called "Have your shopping list ready" scenario, so that you can buy up the tokens from projects you have done thorough research on and that fundamentally look good to you.
BTC$ (4h)
It is really tough to say where we might go from here. As a first observation: I like the long wick down and the fast recovery. If we are able to close above $43k over the next 3-4 hours, it would confirm a nice bounce with more potential back into the previous range of $44-50k.
If not, the $40k level is well protected by large buying orders in pretty much every order book I can see via the www.okotoki.com app. But in case it fails, we will move back down into the $33k region rather quickly.
My guess is that we will grind sideways with an upward tendency. This view is more macro driven than what can be seen on the chart.
I believe that the developer crisis in China will fade out over time and contagion should be limited. Then again, if China's issue spreads we can look forward to the magical back-stops of the most prominent central banks around the globe.
Either way, it shows once again that crypto as an asset class has a high correlation to the TradFi market - especially during "risk-off" scenarios.
China's property developer crisis started by Evergrande has spilled over into crypto at lighting speed. There has been a typical "risk-off" move across equity/commodity and crypto.
Correlation was very high during the selling waves. If you look at the three indices from FTX: the ALT, MID, and SHIT indices all showed the same pattern on the way down. We are returning to what I have in the past called "Have your shopping list ready" scenario, so that you can buy up the tokens from projects you have done thorough research on and that fundamentally look good to you.
BTC$ (4h)
It is really tough to say where we might go from here. As a first observation: I like the long wick down and the fast recovery. If we are able to close above $43k over the next 3-4 hours, it would confirm a nice bounce with more potential back into the previous range of $44-50k.
If not, the $40k level is well protected by large buying orders in pretty much every order book I can see via the www.okotoki.com app. But in case it fails, we will move back down into the $33k region rather quickly.
My guess is that we will grind sideways with an upward tendency. This view is more macro driven than what can be seen on the chart.
I believe that the developer crisis in China will fade out over time and contagion should be limited. Then again, if China's issue spreads we can look forward to the magical back-stops of the most prominent central banks around the globe.
Either way, it shows once again that crypto as an asset class has a high correlation to the TradFi market - especially during "risk-off" scenarios.