This looks really bad now. I thought that we would enter a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, but Bitcoin's continued weakness let's me fear for a worst-case scenario.
There is still time and we could get lucky for a Wyckoff pattern, but should BTC really go lower, it is likely that we would visit the 12k area.
Many people would then think: Awesome, cheap coins ! This is excellent ! I will buy cheap coins and then Bitcoin will make new All-time highs after the next halving.
But wait !
From a technical perspective, this is really bad if Bitcoin goes really so low. It basically breaks all important support levels, and this would mean that the entire runup from
2010 until 2022, has been a completed 5-Wave Eliott structure.
And that would mean that we would get a huge ABC correction, where the A wave goes to 12k, and consequently the C wave would go much lower, to around 2k. Sounds insane,
but that is what would happen from a technical perspective.
The B wave would go to around 40k, and people would be really optimistic again, we would see lots of "CCMF" and laser eyes, and whatnot, but in reality it would just be a bounce.
And this would also coincide for when I think the real recession will come: Normally it starts about 6-12 months after the FED pivot. The FED is expected to pivot in Q1 2023.
Thus, we would see the start of the real bearmarket in early 2024. THis in turn means, that there would not be a new alltime high for the Bitcoin Halving. Yes, sure, some coins would
pump nicely, but we would not get the typical super mania phase where many many coins pump like crazy.
On the right side I drew ETHUSD, which did something very similar a few years ago. The structure is very similar, and I think that this is what BTC would do.
But of course I still hope that my previous idea will be the correct one, the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Then we would soon see a bounce to 25k and the final spring at around 16k.
Let's hope for that scenario, because the 12k scenario would mean quite a few years of brutal bearmarket.
There is still time and we could get lucky for a Wyckoff pattern, but should BTC really go lower, it is likely that we would visit the 12k area.
Many people would then think: Awesome, cheap coins ! This is excellent ! I will buy cheap coins and then Bitcoin will make new All-time highs after the next halving.
But wait !
From a technical perspective, this is really bad if Bitcoin goes really so low. It basically breaks all important support levels, and this would mean that the entire runup from
2010 until 2022, has been a completed 5-Wave Eliott structure.
And that would mean that we would get a huge ABC correction, where the A wave goes to 12k, and consequently the C wave would go much lower, to around 2k. Sounds insane,
but that is what would happen from a technical perspective.
The B wave would go to around 40k, and people would be really optimistic again, we would see lots of "CCMF" and laser eyes, and whatnot, but in reality it would just be a bounce.
And this would also coincide for when I think the real recession will come: Normally it starts about 6-12 months after the FED pivot. The FED is expected to pivot in Q1 2023.
Thus, we would see the start of the real bearmarket in early 2024. THis in turn means, that there would not be a new alltime high for the Bitcoin Halving. Yes, sure, some coins would
pump nicely, but we would not get the typical super mania phase where many many coins pump like crazy.
On the right side I drew ETHUSD, which did something very similar a few years ago. The structure is very similar, and I think that this is what BTC would do.
But of course I still hope that my previous idea will be the correct one, the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Then we would soon see a bounce to 25k and the final spring at around 16k.
Let's hope for that scenario, because the 12k scenario would mean quite a few years of brutal bearmarket.
Comment:
So we didn't go down to the 12k area, and now it's about 50/50 what will happen next. There is still the possibility for this massive bear scenario, if the yield curve inversion leads to a massive Earnings decline later in 2023, or early 2024. This normally happens with a 12-16 months delay, that's why I think that the real stock market dump hasn't even begun yet.
However, we could also be lucky and this dump could be a lot more benign than we think, because now the yield curve inversion has become almost common knowledge. If the stock market doesn't dump so much, then BTC will of course not do this massive bear scenario, and then this scenario here is what we're going to do:
So it will all depend on how the stock market is going to behave in the next 12 months. But one should be open minded to all possibilities, even the mega bear case. Just because we don't like a scenario, doesn't make it less likely to happen.
Markets tend to surprise us every time :)
However, we could also be lucky and this dump could be a lot more benign than we think, because now the yield curve inversion has become almost common knowledge. If the stock market doesn't dump so much, then BTC will of course not do this massive bear scenario, and then this scenario here is what we're going to do:
So it will all depend on how the stock market is going to behave in the next 12 months. But one should be open minded to all possibilities, even the mega bear case. Just because we don't like a scenario, doesn't make it less likely to happen.
Markets tend to surprise us every time :)
It might pump like crazy or dump like crazy. If it pumps like crazy, then we might have seen the low, but if it dumps further, then this will speak more for the ABC correction hypothesis.
Let's see what the next days will bring :)