Let's state the obvious: this is a crazy idea. But my years in Bitcoin have taught me to expect the unexpected and that even the most bullish Bitcoin-maxis tend to be too conservative in their targets over time. So let's go for it, we only live once.
The BASIC IDEA: this bull run will end like 2013, not like 2017, and because of lengthening cycles we are actually much earlier in the bull run than people realize. The fundamental realities of our post-pandemic world, the sheer scale of Bitcoin, and the ongoing destruction of fiat will all make this possible. The current cycle will end at around 3-4 MILLION $ in early 2023.
The ASSUMPTIONS: until hyper-Bitcoinization makes $-value irrelevant, Bitcoin will move in a parallel channel pivoted on the 2011 and 2020 market bottoms and the 2013 market top. We are currently in the bottom range of this channel and will repeat 2012-2013 by moving to the top in two major waves. Market cycles have lengthened by a factor of 1.45, giving us a peak around January 2023, at which point the channel top is at 3-4 MILLION $.
The SCENARIO: we will move in four major phases.
OCT-DEC 21: Bitcoin rises steadily to about $120k by early December 2021, causing some people to take profits, but Bitcoin easily finds support at $100k. This triggers confidence and FOMO, possibly combined with some major news, launching Bitcoin into its first major price discovery.
DEC 21-JAN 22: People call tops at $160k and $270k, but Bitcoin moves past these points easily, surprising many and spreading panic among those on the fence. This causes a huge spike in demand, which again squeezes a ton of shorts, bringing Bitcoin into some irrational territory between $3-900k.
JAN 22-OCT 22: At this point people anticipate a bear market like 2018-2019, and we go into a six-month lull, but after a major dump fails over summer, Bitcoin begins consolidating around $350k, slowly spreading fear among shorters that Bitcoin may never return to lower levels.
OCT 22-JAN 23: Things come to a head as bears capitulate completely, causing a move so big and so brutal that it directly affects the value of fiat, which reinforces the move all the way to 3-4 MILLION $.
Maybe this is just absolutely insane and can safely be written of as the mad ramblings of a Bitcoin-maxi, but at least I had fun writing and charting this, and who knows what might happen.
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The BASIC IDEA: this bull run will end like 2013, not like 2017, and because of lengthening cycles we are actually much earlier in the bull run than people realize. The fundamental realities of our post-pandemic world, the sheer scale of Bitcoin, and the ongoing destruction of fiat will all make this possible. The current cycle will end at around 3-4 MILLION $ in early 2023.
The ASSUMPTIONS: until hyper-Bitcoinization makes $-value irrelevant, Bitcoin will move in a parallel channel pivoted on the 2011 and 2020 market bottoms and the 2013 market top. We are currently in the bottom range of this channel and will repeat 2012-2013 by moving to the top in two major waves. Market cycles have lengthened by a factor of 1.45, giving us a peak around January 2023, at which point the channel top is at 3-4 MILLION $.
The SCENARIO: we will move in four major phases.
OCT-DEC 21: Bitcoin rises steadily to about $120k by early December 2021, causing some people to take profits, but Bitcoin easily finds support at $100k. This triggers confidence and FOMO, possibly combined with some major news, launching Bitcoin into its first major price discovery.
DEC 21-JAN 22: People call tops at $160k and $270k, but Bitcoin moves past these points easily, surprising many and spreading panic among those on the fence. This causes a huge spike in demand, which again squeezes a ton of shorts, bringing Bitcoin into some irrational territory between $3-900k.
JAN 22-OCT 22: At this point people anticipate a bear market like 2018-2019, and we go into a six-month lull, but after a major dump fails over summer, Bitcoin begins consolidating around $350k, slowly spreading fear among shorters that Bitcoin may never return to lower levels.
OCT 22-JAN 23: Things come to a head as bears capitulate completely, causing a move so big and so brutal that it directly affects the value of fiat, which reinforces the move all the way to 3-4 MILLION $.
Maybe this is just absolutely insane and can safely be written of as the mad ramblings of a Bitcoin-maxi, but at least I had fun writing and charting this, and who knows what might happen.
Did you like this idea? Please smash the button down there and subscribe to our YouTube-channel.
www.youtube.com/c/kongeriket
Comment:
That's a funny coincidence too.
Comment:
Almost a month into this and we're looking great.