Bitcoin could go down to $4555

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
If the breakout of this descending triangle pattern is bearish it gives us a bottom target of around $4555 USD per bitcoin .
How did you work that one out? I think this chart my be a more accurate and realistic measured move of a breakdown:

How can one get that target ?
By parallling the diagonal green line to the top and projecting the lower and upper green line distance down by 1.618 ?
Sounds as one good scenario if BTC will break down from the triangle.
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