I am not a fan when it comes to long term price predictions. It really is anyone's guess where we will be in 5 years, 10 years, 50 years or whatever date you want to put on it. The likes of McCaffe, Tim Draper or Tom Lee claiming BTC price will be at price X, Y and Z at year A, B and C...... are total bullshit. They serve only as a tool to jerk one's ego off at a future date in time, nothing more. Because it takes exponentially more money to reach new highs, there is no way to predict the price for the distant future. Price action only allows us to predict into the near future and even that, is not a sure thing. So here I would like to share with you, an estimated time frame for the next bull run / new high. This is NOT meant to predict the price in any way. If you are looking for long term price predictions, I suggest you go to your local fortune teller because their guess is as good as McCaffe's, Draper's or what ever aligns with your own narrative best.
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There are three main dates I want you to take from this chart ( + or - a few days because cannot pinpoint on monthly candles )
Nov 2012
July 2016
May 2020
These are the block halving dates of BTC. They occur roughly every 4 years or every 210'000 blocks.
From the first block reward halving to the peak of the 2013 bull market it took 365 days.
From the second block reward halving to the peak of the 2017 bull it took 518 days, this represents a 42 % increase in time ( rounded up from 41.92XXX % )
Assuming this compounding increase of time will be true a third time, we can say that it will be roughly 730 days after the halving of May 2020, until the peak of the next bull market. That puts the next mania in and around May of 2022.
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Regarding the green box which stretches from May 2020 to March 2021, this is when I think BTC will see it's all time high of $20'000 once again. At any point in that 11 month window. Obviously this can be wrong as it's just a copy of the 2013 bubble pop. The 2017 bubble pop involved A LOT more money, A LOT more noobs were on board, A LOT more media coverage was given and so we can presume that the two bubble pops will play out differently. It is the only reference I had though so I threw it in for fun.
You might thinking.... "But sir, what about all the institutional solutions coming this year and next, what about ETF, what about this, what about that ?!?!?!".... Well think of it like this, the big boys are already rich as fuck and they do not give a single shit about you or your shitcoins. They are in my opinion most likely to accumulate first, just as we saw whales do from 2014-2017 so that the whole cycle can repeat again and a new wave of evangelists / bag holders are born at the top of the next bull market. In conclusion, I do not think that we will see a bull run any time soon but I do think we will make a higher high in the not too distant future. If you enjoy my post, please like and share it with your friends. I really do appreciate it.
This post is in no way intended to be legal or financial advice, it is for informational purposes only.
Sue me.
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There are three main dates I want you to take from this chart ( + or - a few days because cannot pinpoint on monthly candles )
Nov 2012
July 2016
May 2020
These are the block halving dates of BTC. They occur roughly every 4 years or every 210'000 blocks.
From the first block reward halving to the peak of the 2013 bull market it took 365 days.
From the second block reward halving to the peak of the 2017 bull it took 518 days, this represents a 42 % increase in time ( rounded up from 41.92XXX % )
Assuming this compounding increase of time will be true a third time, we can say that it will be roughly 730 days after the halving of May 2020, until the peak of the next bull market. That puts the next mania in and around May of 2022.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regarding the green box which stretches from May 2020 to March 2021, this is when I think BTC will see it's all time high of $20'000 once again. At any point in that 11 month window. Obviously this can be wrong as it's just a copy of the 2013 bubble pop. The 2017 bubble pop involved A LOT more money, A LOT more noobs were on board, A LOT more media coverage was given and so we can presume that the two bubble pops will play out differently. It is the only reference I had though so I threw it in for fun.
You might thinking.... "But sir, what about all the institutional solutions coming this year and next, what about ETF, what about this, what about that ?!?!?!".... Well think of it like this, the big boys are already rich as fuck and they do not give a single shit about you or your shitcoins. They are in my opinion most likely to accumulate first, just as we saw whales do from 2014-2017 so that the whole cycle can repeat again and a new wave of evangelists / bag holders are born at the top of the next bull market. In conclusion, I do not think that we will see a bull run any time soon but I do think we will make a higher high in the not too distant future. If you enjoy my post, please like and share it with your friends. I really do appreciate it.
This post is in no way intended to be legal or financial advice, it is for informational purposes only.
Sue me.