BTC USD High Probability Bounce Incoming NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
With inflation fears coming to the mainstream, I think we could see people scramble and jump into traditional stores of value, possibly bitcoin.... then you have the technicals on the above chart and it all make sense. However I personally hope people will be smarter than that and buy things they need and if they must invest, limit exposure and scale or average into positions to help reduce losses from volatile markets. I think this is either bouncing or breaking down to 20k or lower, I would play a long with a buy stop at 39k and a stoploss/trade reversal at 35k, trail the stop into profit every day at 8pm eastern time.
This is one crazy market and I have been wrong about it before with a stop loss in place, I have also been right with zero drawdown, see my linked idea from the last time this monster was at 10k.
This is one crazy market and I have been wrong about it before with a stop loss in place, I have also been right with zero drawdown, see my linked idea from the last time this monster was at 10k.
Trade active:
Well as you can see, the support I had drawn out is where the bounce happened, not 31k like some people were thinking. The next step is for the buy stop at 39k, if it runs out of gas before then, selling a stop below the support would be the entry. Again, if it trips the 39k buy stop but fails, the reversal to flip short from said hypothetical long would be at 35k.
Comment:
And just like that, take no trade from these setups, re-evaluate.
Comment:
so we broke the top of the decending channel shown last night by the three white lines, and as I said if that happened there would be no trade left to takel. We have indeed gone sideways for almost 24 hours with no swing trade setup until now and it looks like some fractal-ish(;P) structures are setting up for people to buy a stop above the current double top. see the newest yellow text bubble for specifics.
Trade closed: target reached:
After reevaluating, the trade reached the target as shown above.
Comment:
Wow, short term bounce played out and now crypto winter as stated in the original chart.
Comment:
and 2022 saw the crypto winter I forecasted, funny how spring never came thanks to FTX.
Selling a stop under the dashed yellow line (preferably on a retest of the break) but not if it struggles to get there, and even still... ONLY if the volume matches the price action.
The only potential structure I see keeping the price from touching the dashed yellow line, is the apparent uptrend this market is trying to establish, as shown by the red and green lines. The top half of the channel has been traded and the support was tested, broken, retested, and failed, as shown by the green oval. true to the saying, "old support is new resistance" or until proven otherwise by new price action.
If a bounce occurs near the highlighted portion of the solid green line, now you know why.
I identified the target for the bounce by drawing the top red line by hand, between the two highs (Resistance) and then copying it (ctrl+left click & drag - to hold the exact angle and distance) and dragging it down the chart to the extreme low that is closest to the first high, shown as a green and red dashed line (Old Support/Current Short-Term Uptrend Resistance). The last hope the short-term bulls have is for the solid green line to be validated by a bounce, establishing it as Support. If the green line fails to hold and volume correlates with the price action racing to the yellow dashed line, look for a break and close below the yellow dashed line on at least the 4 hour, then chase the entry if you dare or hold out for a likely retest (the confirmation of support/resistance swap) on the higher time frames before placing your sell stop order below the low of said proposed break. This is again a time where we would be looking for old support to become new resistance like shown on the red and green dashed line only now at the dashed yellow line and at much greater scale.
Abandon the short and take zero trade if the price breaks back above the current channel (as shown by the three white lines) before it touches the solid green line.
BONUS CONTENT:
I think that JP said tools enough times in the conference today to make it clear they would use said tools to keep inflation from going crazy. What do you think?