Just a retrace!? BTC tests the 1W 50-EMA, like previous cycles
Too much talk I see online about the 21 weekly. It really isn't as important as the 50-EMA on the 1W, because while it is rarely seen, it is the true mark of the beginning of part two of a cycle or the end of the macro trend.
When price closes above the 1W 50-EMA, it is a very bullish signal. When it closes below or lingers on the 50 EMA, it will breakdown in the near future.
There are only two patterns so far in history: tap it and move away, or linger and breakdown.
At the moment, we are clear above the 50 EMA but tapped right through it.
Now there's another factor: when it happens.
In the first cycle of 2013/2014, it was 50% of the way into the cycle, in hindsight.
For 2016/2017, it happened once and nearer to 25% of the way into its cycle.
Now, we see the tap of the 50 very early in the markup phase. It was a more dramatic markup so early on, but volume is still rising on average. There is a clear trend, too, and the blow off top was soaked up by shorts, so it's possible to see a few months downtrend just as in 2019, but it is more likely now to play out as Bitcoin's most violent retrace in history, as it retraces all this territory in the coming weeks.
There are a lot of positions building up at 30k. Ask yourself why.
When price closes above the 1W 50-EMA, it is a very bullish signal. When it closes below or lingers on the 50 EMA, it will breakdown in the near future.
There are only two patterns so far in history: tap it and move away, or linger and breakdown.
At the moment, we are clear above the 50 EMA but tapped right through it.
Now there's another factor: when it happens.
In the first cycle of 2013/2014, it was 50% of the way into the cycle, in hindsight.
For 2016/2017, it happened once and nearer to 25% of the way into its cycle.
Now, we see the tap of the 50 very early in the markup phase. It was a more dramatic markup so early on, but volume is still rising on average. There is a clear trend, too, and the blow off top was soaked up by shorts, so it's possible to see a few months downtrend just as in 2019, but it is more likely now to play out as Bitcoin's most violent retrace in history, as it retraces all this territory in the coming weeks.
There are a lot of positions building up at 30k. Ask yourself why.